KAMPALA – In a scene that has become all too familiar, soldiers are once again patrolling the streets of Uganda’s capital as President Yoweri Museveni and his challengers conclude their final rallies. The lead-up to this critical election, held Thursday, has been marked by increased military presence, a move that has raised eyebrows among opposition leaders who argue it’s a sign of the authoritarian grip they seek to dismantle.
President Museveni, who is bidding for a seventh term, has been in power long enough to become Africa’s third-longest-serving leader. If victorious, he would lead the nation into a fifth decade under his rule. His primary opponent is Bobi Wine, a charismatic singer whose real name is Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, and who has gained a significant following as he transitions into politics.
Alongside Museveni and Wine, six other candidates have thrown their hats into the ring in this election, vying for the presidency of a country with a population of approximately 45 million. The electoral commission has reported that around 21.6 million Ugandans are registered to vote in this pivotal contest.
Experts from the International Crisis Group have forecasted that Museveni “will likely retain power in forthcoming polls,” highlighting the challenges faced by the opposition in bringing about change.
In recent days, Ugandan authorities have been proactive in deploying troops throughout Kampala. Starting Saturday, armored vehicles and soldiers have visibly increased their presence in various parts of the city, a measure the government claims is necessary to prevent violence.
Colonel Chris Magezi, the military spokesperson, has defended the deployment, dismissing allegations that it undermines democratic processes. According to Magezi, the military presence is intended solely as a deterrent to potential unrest, not as a tool of suppression.
“No cause for alarm,” Magezi said. “However, we do not take threats of violence during the election period by some political actors and their supporters lightly.”
Incumbent faces a youthful challenger
Museveni and Wine are reprising their rivalry from the previous election in 2021, when Wine rattled authorities with a bold quest for leadership that appealed to mostly young people in the urban areas. With voter turnout of 59%, Wine secured 35% of the ballots against Museveni’s 58%, the president’s smallest vote share since his first electoral campaign three decades ago.
Wine’s prominence as an opposition leader has since grown. The 43-year-old appears to have kept much of his base intact in parts of eastern Uganda as well as the metropolitan area around Kampala, where he has held boisterous rallies while wearing a flak jacket and helmet to protect himself from gunfire.
Museveni, 81, has a loyal following across northern Uganda and his western home region. His supporters credit him with restoring relative peace and stability in a country that is home to hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing violence elsewhere.
Wine told The Associated Press in a recent interview that he and his supporters have been attacked by security forces who used tear gas and sometimes even bullets, allegations repeated by Amnesty International.
Museveni has spoken disparagingly of Wine, calling him as unpatriotic and an agent of foreign interests. Wine rejects the charges.
Many in Uganda’s ruling party, known as the National Resistance Movement, have suggested Museveni would never hand power to Wine if the challenger won the election.
Museveni campaigned under the banner of “protecting the gains,” a term some see as misguided because it evokes concerns about largesse from rampant official corruption. Others also perceive a measure of force in the slogan, suggesting power is not negotiable.
“I was born when Museveni was in power,” said 37-year-old Farouk Mugaya, who operates a passenger motorcycle in Kampala. “They have had enough time to protect the gains. I want to see change.”
Mugaya said he plans to vote in his hometown of Iganga in eastern Uganda even though he is not optimistic about the outcome.
“I don’t want to say they rigged the vote when I was just there and didn’t vote,” he said. “I want to say they stole the vote when I also voted.”
Others who spoke to the AP said they want the next government to prioritize job creation, with unemployment a major issue for voters seeking change.
“Uganda is very hard. Getting money is not easy,” said Denis Oraku, a mason who works at a construction site just outside Kampala.
Despite relative peace, Oraku said, “we have no jobs.”
President’s son is part of the equation
Museveni first took power by force as the leader of the guerrilla army fighting to restore democratic rule after a period of civil war and the cruel dictatorship of Idi Amin. He has been elected six times since 1996, nearly all of those polls marred by allegations of rigging and interference by the security forces.
Some critics say removing Museveni from power via elections remains difficult, but the aging president’s authority has become increasingly dependent on the military led by his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
Kainerugaba is a four-star general who sparked controversy as the author of tweets widely seen as offensive, including comments about invading neighboring Kenya and an offer of cattle as a dowry to wed the Italian prime minister.
Kainerugaba also said he expects to succeed his father as president, raising concerns over family rule undermining democracy.
“Time is not on his side,” analyst Robert Kabushenga said on a popular podcast, speaking of Museveni. “For the first time he is actually, really an outsider. Why? Because he doesn’t represent the future.”
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