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Anthony Albanese’s election hopes took a hit after a significant blunder during the first week of campaigning, but the margin of error in the latest opinion poll indicates it’s not over yet.
Both Mr Albanese and Scott Morrison suffered a series of gaffes in recent days but a poll conducted by Resolve Political Monitor found the prime minister’s approval rating actually improved.
Despite recapturing the lead as preferred PM, analysts said he was not a sure bet and opinions were likely to continue flip-flopping ahead of the May 21 election.
There is a 2.6 per cent margin of error within the latest data. Just 1,404 people participated in the polling over the course of one week.
The larger the margin of error, the less confidence the general public should have that the poll result would reflect the opinions of the entire population.
Anthony Albanese’s election hopes took a hit after a significant blunder during the first week of campaigning but the margin of error in the latest opinion poll indicates it’s still too close to call
Despite Mr Morrison’s personal popularity rising, the Resolve Strategic survey indicates Labor would win 51:49 in a two-party preferred vote
Despite Mr Morrison’s personal popularity rising, the Resolve Strategic survey indicates Labor would win 51-49 in a two-party preferred vote.
But 27 per cent of voters said they were still not committed to voting for one party over the other despite the election being in just five weeks.
These swing voters could throw polling statistics out of the window come election day.
Mr Albanese’s popularity plunged from 37 per cent to 30 per cent following a string of gaffes in recent days but he still has five weeks left to change voters’ minds.
‘Every trend has gone the Coalition’s way in this latest poll – vote, leadership, policy, performance – so the electorate is judging that the government won the first week of the campaign,’ Resolve director Jim Reed told the Sydney Morning Herald.
‘The calling of the election has moved voters from judging the government’s term to a choice between the parties and particularly their leaders. It was incredibly damaging for Albanese to trip up on critical issues at precisely that point.’
Australian Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese hugs Reverent Rosemary Wynter during a visit to the All Souls’ Anglican Church on Day 7 of the 2022 federal election campaign, in Bangalow
But Mr Morrison hasn’t had a flawless campaign, either. On Sunday, he repeatedly referred to a journalist as Mr Speaker, appearing to forget he was no longer in parliament.
About 44 per cent of voters surveyed believed Mr Morrison was doing a good job as prime minister while 47 per cent rated his performance as poor.
His performance rating of minus three points is a significant improvement on the minus 14 recorded two weeks ago.
When asked about the Opposition Leader, 35 per cent said Mr Albanese was doing a good job while 44 per cent rated his performance as poor, which saw his net rating slump from minus four points to minus nine.
Around 44 per cent of voters surveyed believed Mr Morrison was doing a good job as Prime Minister while 47 per cent rated his performance as poor
The campaign got off to a bad start last Monday when Mr Albanese admitted to reporters he didn’t know the current unemployment or the Reserve Bank cash rate.
Several days later, he was forced to clarify that off-shore immigration centres would remain after he earlier declared he would turn back people smuggling boats.
According to the TAB, the Labor party is still the most likely to cinch the election, but the odds are widening.
The Coalition’s odds narrowed from $2.90 on April 1 to $2.25 on Sunday while Labor’s odds widened from $1.42 to $1.65.
As with the margin of error in polling surveys, voters have been urged not to place too much weight on the odds from betting agencies, The Australian Financial Review reported.
The Prime Minister attended church with his family before hitting the campaign trail in the marginal western Sydney seat of Parramatta, which included a visit to The Childrens’ Hospital at Westmead
The 2019 federal election discredited political betting markets, which strongly predicted Bill Shorten to lead Labor to a victory over Scott Morrison’s Coalition.
That year, Labor appeared to win the opinion polls, but they still lost where it counts – in the polling booths.
Methodologies have changed in that time and appear to be more accurate after correctly predicting the South Australian election, but it’s still not a sure bet.
Mr Albanese spent Easter Sunday campaigning on the NSW far north coast and later appeared at the Byron Bay Bluesfest to welcome Jimmy Barnes to the stage.
He was initially met with deafening boos from revellers before receiving cheers as he promised a funding boost for the arts sector and got Barnes to the stage to perform.
The Prime Minister attended church with his family before hitting the campaign trail in the marginal western Sydney seat of Parramatta, which included a visit to The Childrens’ Hospital at Westmead.
Mr Albanese spent Easter Sunday campaigning on the NSW far north coast and later appeared at the Byron Bay Bluesfest to welcome Jimmy Barnes to the stage