The Trump administration has privately urged Gulf allies to prepare for a brief but intense military campaign against Iran once the midterm elections conclude. The warning was delivered to several Arab governments in the Gulf through diplomatic and military channels, according to The Wall Street Journal. US forces across the region are already preparing, replenishing munitions and positioning bombers and fighter jets for possible strikes. An additional Patriot missile-defense system is being sent to Israel from Texas, while American troops have been relocated from Middle East bases considered vulnerable to Iranian attacks. President Donald Trump, who has pledged not to launch an assault before the midterms, has not issued a final order. However, he is reportedly moving toward a major post-election operation targeting Iranian infrastructure and nuclear facilities. “We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump said at a rally last week, invoking the heavy US-Israeli bombing campaign carried out in the spring. He added: “Or they’ll agree.” Iran has warned through both public statements and private messages that any attack would trigger retaliation against economic and civilian targets across the region.
Mediators race as military pressure builds
Diplomats across the Middle East are scrambling to revive negotiations before renewed airstrikes begin. Their efforts have so far produced little progress, with Washington insisting that any talks address Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran demanding tough concessions of its own. Another carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit are expected to join the roughly 20 warships already deployed in the region next month, although some vessels may be rotated out. Israel has also prepared its own target lists and military options. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to advocate renewed strikes aimed at weakening Iran and, ultimately, toppling its government.
War costs mount as midterms near
The White House declined to comment on “sensitive military plans that may or may not exist,” while maintaining that Trump is keeping every option available to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. A renewed bombing campaign would mark a significant shift from the economic pressure strategy pursued for months. Sanctions and a naval blockade have sharply reduced Iran’s oil exports, disrupted much of its air travel and weakened overland commerce. By mid-October, the eight-month war had cost an estimated $47.1 billion, excluding damage to US military bases, according to figures provided to lawmakers. The conflict has also pushed up gasoline prices and other household expenses, increasing pressure on Republicans just days before the midterm elections.
Iran rebuilds missiles as defenses run low
Polls show voters in pivotal swing states moving away from the Republican Party, a trend that could threaten GOP control of both the House and Senate. About $29 billion of the war’s costs has been spent on munitions, including Tomahawk and Patriot missiles. Iran issued similar warnings before the conflict began and then acted on them, striking US bases, diplomatic sites, energy facilities and airports across the Gulf. Any new retaliation would come as the United States and its Gulf partners work to replenish missile defenses depleted by repeated Iranian barrages. Tehran still possesses hundreds, possibly thousands, of missiles and is producing new ballistic weapons using stockpiled components. The pace of that rebuilding effort has raised alarm among Israeli officials.
