Early returns from the local elections across England reveal significant setbacks for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, while the hard-right Reform UK party is experiencing notable victories.
These elections are being interpreted as a de facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership. Since his election less than two years ago, his approval ratings have dipped as the electorate grows frustrated with the lack of economic advancement and transformative policies after 14 years under Conservative rule.
Starmer acknowledged the “very tough” outcomes, affirming his accountability but refusing to step down.
“The electorate has conveyed a clear message about their desire for accelerated change and improvements in their lives,” Starmer stated. “I was chosen to tackle these issues, and I won’t abandon that responsibility, risking further instability for the nation.”
Reform UK, under the leadership of seasoned nationalist Nigel Farage, secured numerous local council seats in traditionally Labour-dominated working-class regions in northern England such as Hartlepool. They also made strides against the Conservatives in areas like Havering in East London.
Farage described the election results as “a historic shift in British politics.”
The picture will change throughout Friday as results come in from the majority of local councils, including Labour strongholds like London. Votes will also be counted in contests for semiautonomous parliaments in Scotland and Wales.
Results reflect fragmentation of UK politics
Reform UK, running on an anti-establishment, anti-immigration message, also is eyeing breakthroughs in Scotland and Wales, though pro-independence nationalists the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru are more likely to form governments in Edinburgh and Cardiff.
A Labour rout could trigger moves by restive party politicians to oust a leader who led them to power in July 2024. Even if Starmer survives for now, many analysts doubt he will lead the party into the next national election, which must be held by 2029.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy cautioned the party not to topple the prime minister, saying “you don’t change the pilot during the flight”.
Labour is losing votes to Reform UK on its right, and also to the Green Party, whose popularity has risen under self-described “eco populist” leader Zack Polanski. The Greens hoped to increase their vote share and win hundreds of council seats in urban centers and university towns.
The Conservative Party is also expected to lose ground, with the centrist Liberal Democrats making some gains.
The results reflect a fragmentation of British politics after decades of domination by Labour and the Conservatives, and make the outcome of the country’s next national election hard to predict.
John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said Britain is entering a new political era where “none of the parties are very big”.
“Even Reform are probably not quite at 30 per cent of the vote, so the fracturing of British politics is underlined by these results,” he told the BBC.
Starmer’s future is under threat
Starmer’s popularity has plunged after repeated missteps and U-turns on policies such as welfare reform. His government has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair tattered public services and ease the cost of living â tasks made harder by the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has choked off oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The prime minister has been further hurt by his disastrous decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a scandal-tarnished friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as Britain’s ambassador to Washington.
Poor election results could trigger a challenge from a high-profile rival such as Health Secretary Wes Streeting, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner or Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. Alternatively, Starmer could face pressure from the party to set a timetable for his departure after an orderly leadership contest.
“I don’t think Keir Starmer should survive these results,” said Labour politician Jonathan Brash, who represents Hartlepool in Parliament. “We have to be bolder, and we have to go further. And quite frankly, we need new leadership in order to achieve that.”
