Iran’s currency, the rial, has plummeted to an all-time low, reaching 1,600,000 to the US dollar ($1.43), as reported by local traders. Earlier in the week, the rate had already fallen to 1,500,000 rials per US dollar. The nation’s economic difficulties have fueled protests that have escalated into a broader challenge against the ruling theocracy.
The future actions of US President Donald Trump regarding military intervention remain uncertain. However, he has clearly stated two conditions that could prompt force: the killing of peaceful protesters and the potential mass execution of detainees. According to activists, at least 6,221 people have died as the Iranian government has violently suppressed the protests, with fears of additional casualties.
Trump expressed his hopes for negotiation via his Truth Social platform, stating, “Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal—NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS—one that is good for all parties.” He emphasized the urgency, adding, “Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!”
Referring to the June attacks on Iran, which occurred as the US became involved in Israel’s 12-day conflict with the Islamic Republic, Trump warned, “The next attack will be far worse!”
He also declared, “A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose,” highlighting the potential for increased military presence and action in the region.
“A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose,” Trump said.
“It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela.
“Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.”
Iran’s mission to the UN was quick to respond to Trump, posting on X that “Iran stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interestsâBUT IF PUSHED, IT WILL DEFEND ITSELF AND RESPOND LIKE NEVER BEFORE!”
Iran’s state-run media, which now only refers to protesters as “terrorists”, remains the sole source of news for many as Tehran cut off access to the global internet some three weeks ago. But Iranians have become angry and anxious, seeing footage of protesters shot and killed while worrying about what may happen next as the economy â the original focus of the protests â sinks further.
“I feel that my generation failed to give a better lesson to younger ones,” said Mohammad Heidari, a 59-year-old teacher in Tehran.
“The result of decades of teaching by my colleagues and me led to death of thousands, and maybe more injured and prisoners.”
Rapid diplomacy between Iran, Arab nations
Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said its top diplomat, Badr Abdelatty, separately spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to “work toward achieving calm, in order to avoid the region slipping into new cycles of instability”.
The statement offered no details, though Iranian state media quoted Araghchi as saying third-party mediators had been in touch. Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer and Trump’s friend, had earlier negotiated over Iran’s nuclear program. There was no immediate acknowledgement from the White House of the call.
The Turkish foreign minister also spoke by phone with Araghchi about reducing regional tensions. Turkish officials have expressed concern that intervention in Iran could spark instability or trigger a refugee influx.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, saying the kingdom would “not allow its airspace or territory to be used for any military actions against Iran or for any attacks from any party, regardless of their origin”. That follows a similar pledge by the UAE.
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE host US air assets and troops. Both also have faced attacks in the last decade. A 2019 assault believed by the West to have been carried out by Iran briefly halved Saudi oil production. The UAE faced several attacks claimed by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels in 2022.
However, America’s biggest base in the region is Qatar’s vast Al Udeid Air Base, which serves as the forward operating headquarters of the US military’s Central Command. Both Araghchi and Ali Larijani, a top Iranian security official, held calls with Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Qatar acknowledged the calls but offered few specifics on what was discussed.
Iran attacked Al Udeid in June in response to Trump sending American warplanes to bomb Iranian nuclear enrichment sites during the war last year.
“Our position is exactly this: Applying diplomacy through military threats cannot be effective or constructive,” Araghchi told journalists Wednesday outside of a Cabinet meeting.
“If they want negotiations to take shape, they must abandon threats, excessive demands and the raising of illogical issues. Negotiations have their own principles: They must be conducted on an equal footing, based on mutual respect, and for mutual benefit.”
Activists offer new death toll
While the protests have been halted for weeks after the crackdown, information trickling out of Iran via Starlink satellite dishes is reaching activists, who have been trying to tally the carnage.
On Wednesday, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in multiple rounds of unrest in Iran, said the at least 6221 dead it counted included at least 5858 protesters, 214 government-affiliated forces, 100 children and 49 civilians who weren’t demonstrating. More than 42,300 have been arrested, it added.
The group verifies each death and arrest with a network of activists on the ground in Iran. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the death toll given that authorities cut off the internet and disrupted calls into the Islamic Republic.
Iran’s government has put the death toll at a far lower 3117, saying 2427 were civilians and security forces, and labelled the rest “terrorists”. In the past, Iran’s theocracy has undercounted or not reported fatalities from unrest.
That death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The protests began on December 28, sparked by the fall of the Iranian currency, the rial, and quickly spread. The country has faced more than two weeks of internet blackout â the most comprehensive in its history.
Iran on Wednesday also announced the execution of Hamidreza Sabet, a man it convicted of spying for Israel. Sabet’s execution marks the 13th carried out by Iran against alleged spies for Israel since the June war.
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