Within a few generations, the average Australian could live into their mid-to-late 80s. But experts warn that getting the nation’s health policies right will be crucial to ensuring those additional years are healthy and fulfilling.
Treasury’s latest Intergenerational Report, due to be released in full on Monday, will examine how government policies could shape Australia over the next 40 years.
An extract published on Sunday forecast that life expectancy at birth for women would reach almost 90 years by 2065/66, compared with about 86 years today.
For men, life expectancy is projected to increase from 82 years at present to 86 years over the next four decades.
The projections would preserve Australia’s position among the countries with the world’s highest life expectancies.
Australian Medical Association president Danielle McMullen welcomed the gains, describing them as evidence of successful policy, while cautioning that Australians must also be able to enjoy good health for longer.
‘Over the last few generations we’re living longer, but we’re also living more years in ill health with chronic disease or mental illness,’ she told ABC News on Sunday.
‘That’s certainly something as doctors we would want to turn around and make sure people are staying healthy as well as living longer lives.’
Jim Chalmers (pictured) said some parts of the report were ‘confronting’, but insisted it was not pessimistic
Dr McMullen said greater emphasis should be placed on preventive healthcare, arguing that regular medical check-ups earlier in life could help reduce chronic illness in later years.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the report highlighted the need for continued investment in Medicare, the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and the expansion of urgent care clinics.
However, Australia’s growing and ageing population will remain a major source of long-term pressure on the federal budget, Chalmers told News24’s Sunday Agenda program.
‘There are elements of the intergenerational report which are confronting, but it’s not a pessimistic report … because Australians are genuinely better placed and better prepared for all of this accelerating change that we are seeing,’ he said.
Treasury expects Australia’s population in the mid-2060s to be slightly smaller than projected in the 2023 Intergenerational Report.
Annual population growth is forecast to slow to 0.9 per cent over the next 40 years, down from the 1.4 per cent average recorded during the previous four decades.
The population is projected to reach 39.3 million by 2065/66 — 1.8 million fewer people than predicted in the 2023 report.
A key factor behind the slower population growth is the declining fertility rate, as women continue to have fewer children.
Australia’s population is expected to fall short of the forecast made in the 2023 Intergenerational Report. Pictured, commuters at Parramatta train station
‘Almost half the decline in fertility rates is actually because fewer people are having three or more kids and what that reflects is mums having fewer kids later in life,’ Chalmers said.
‘Our job is to make it a little bit easier for people to make that choice if they want to,’ he said, pointing to Labor policies that subsidise childcare, expand paid parental leave and increase compulsory superannuation contributions.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor said young families should be able to have confidence they could afford to have children, but the Coalition had no plans to revive the Howard and Costello-era ‘baby bonus’ policy.
Future government debt is expected to be slashed by half a trillion dollars compared to forecasts in the 2023 report, but much of the economic progress relies on emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence.
‘Overwhelmingly, the fiscal story is a little bit better; but still, lots, lots more work to do to manage some of these pressures and risks,’ Chalmers said.
Previous Treasury advice suggested AI could provide significant productivity gains across the public and private sectors if the nation kept pace with the global shift towards the technology.
Mr Taylor said Labor would ‘cook the books’ and rely on rosy productivity assumptions to deliver better-than-expected budget forecasts.
