Concerns are mounting over Tasmania’s economic future as the state witnesses a rapidly growing number of retirees, outpacing the rest of Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has revealed that 130,000 individuals aged 45 and above are currently not participating in the workforce. This figure represents 50 percent of this age demographic, significantly higher than the national average of 42 percent.
Rocky Scopelliti, a well-regarded futurologist, has highlighted that this trend indicates Tasmania is on the brink of experiencing an ‘ageing squeeze’ more swiftly than other states. This demographic shift could potentially strain the state’s healthcare services, housing market, and overall economic stability.
“This isn’t an isolated incident but rather a structural ageing wave,” Scopelliti explained. “With one in two people aged 45 and older already retired in Tasmania, employers will increasingly turn to younger individuals in their 20s and 30s, as well as migrants, to fill the workforce gaps.”
While this scenario might present opportunities for younger Tasmanians through more job openings and quicker career advancement, Scopelliti warns of a broader challenge. The ABS data also shows that on a national scale, 294,000 people intend to retire within the next two years, with 806,000 planning to exit the labor force over the next five years. This impending, significant departure from the workforce underscores the urgency of addressing these economic concerns.
‘Because one in two people aged 45+ is already retired in Tasmania, employers will increasingly look to people in their 20s and 30s, and to in-migrants to fill roles.
‘That can be good for younger Tasmanians – more vacancies, faster progression – but the ABS also shows 294,000 people nationally intend to retire in the next two years and 806,000 in the next five years, a big, timed exit from the labour force.’
In NSW 1.4million people aged 45+ are retired (41 per cent), followed by Victoria which has 1.1million retirees.
Mr Scopelliti said tighter labour supply would drive up wages in sectors relied upon by older Australians, warning of a growing risk of skill shortages if training programs in nursing, aged care and disability support fail to scale up in time to meet the demands of an ageing population.
Half of Tasmanians aged 45 and over are already out of the workforce, new data has revealed, raising fears the state’s economy could suffer as a result
Globally, Australia is still ageing more slowly than countries like Japan or Italy.
‘But the pattern is identical: a growing percentage of the population retired, slow growth in intended retirement age, and growing reliance on pensions even as super rises,’ Mr Scopelliti said.
‘What’s new in 2025 is that Australia’s national retiree proportion jumped two points in five years, that’s a fast move for a developed country and puts us closer to the European ageing trajectory than the 2010s data suggested.
‘Unless Tasmania suddenly imports a lot of working-age people, those national exits will push Tasmania’s ratio above 50 per cent and keep it there until through the early 2030s.’
KPMG Australia’s analysis of labour force survey data reveals in the past financial year the expected retirement age for men was 67 years, up by 2.2 years in a decade, while for women it was 65.3 years, up by 1.1 years.
Urban economist Terry Rawnsley said there was a growing cohort of older Australians who are happy to stay in the workforce well beyond retirement age, blurring what was once a sharp divide between work and retirement.
‘Twenty years ago, one in ten men were working at age 70. Today, it’s one in four. Even for men in their late 70s, almost one in ten remain in the labour force,’ he said.
‘The adoption of working from home has made many older Australians in professional jobs realise they can “semi-retire” and continue dabbling in the workforce part-time.
The latest figures highlight Tasmania’s growing appeal as a retirement destination with many choosing to see out their twilight years somewhere where there is affordable housing, a quieter lifestyle, and natural beauty
‘More people now have the luxury of semi-retirement where they can do part-time, flexible work that can supplement retirement savings, supporting a more comfortable lifestyle and even supporting their children and grandchildren.’
Mr Scopelliti said the retiree boom presents opportunities to tap into the silver economy.
‘Demand from retirees is not falling, which favours industries that keep people out of hospital, ageing-in-place construction and retrofitting of homes, and lifestyle tourism,’ he said.
‘The data shows government pension is still the single most common main income in retirement, and super is growing but not dominant.
‘That creates space for financial wellbeing, advice and retirement-living products targeted to lower-super cohorts.’
The Grey Gap Report by Australian Seniors confirms enthusiasm for travel remains strong amongst retirees even as costs climb.
Three in four seniors have firm plans to travel in the future, with Australia one of the most popular destinations, with health retreats and nature destinations top of the bucket list.
