Federal earthquake experts have revised upward the likelihood that California’s Bay Area will be hit by a powerful quake, marking the first major update to the forecast since 2014.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) now estimates a 74.1 percent probability that at least one earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7 or higher will strike the region by 2055. The previous forecast put the risk at 72 percent.
An earthquake of that size has the potential to inflict serious damage across the densely populated Bay Area, threatening homes, highways, utilities and other critical infrastructure.
Scientists say the higher estimate is tied to the passing of time without a major rupture, a period during which tectonic strain has continued to build beneath Northern California.
Ned Field, a USGS seismologist, told the San Francisco Chronicle that the region appears primed for seismic activity: “Things seem to be pretty locked and loaded. We’d be wise to be ready.”
The last major earthquake cited in the region’s recent seismic history occurred in 1994, when a magnitude 6.7 quake centered in Northridge struck.
The disaster, widely known as the Northridge Earthquake, killed at least 57 people and left thousands more injured.
It also produced staggering losses, with damage costs reaching as much as $20 billion and broader economic losses estimated at $40 billion, making it the costliest earthquake disaster in US history.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) now calculates a 74.1 percent chance of at least one magnitude 6.7 or stronger earthquake hitting the region by 2055, up from the previous estimate of 72 percent. Above is an AI-generated stock photo
Around 7.7 million people live in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, while a broader metropolitan definition reaches over nine million residents.
The new forecast underscores that the question facing millions of residents is not whether another destructive earthquake will strike, but when.
Scientists used the same statewide earthquake model for the 2014 and 2026 assessments, known as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast.
The system calculates which faults could produce earthquakes of varying magnitudes and estimates the likelihood of those events occurring.
For the latest assessment, researchers advanced the model’s starting point to 2026, allowing it to factor in the additional years that have passed without certain fault sections rupturing, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.
An earthquake counts toward the Bay Area estimate if any portion of its rupture enters a designated zone extending roughly from Santa Rosa in the north to Monterey in the south.
The team looked at major faults in the Bay Area, and the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system carries the greatest individual risk, with its probability rising from 33.1 percent to 34.3 percent.
However, the largest increase was recorded along the San Andreas Fault, where the odds jumped 3.6 percentage points, from 21.9 percent to 25.5 percent.
The largest increase was recorded along the San Andreas Fault (pictured), where the odds jumped 3.6 percentage points, from 21.9 percent to 25.5 percent
The Calaveras Fault now has a 26.8 percent probability of producing a major earthquake, up from 25.6 percent.
A scientist who has accurately predicted earthquakes in the past recently warned that the massive seismic event could soon lead to a major disaster in the US.
Geophysicist Stefan Burns claimed that California was now firmly ‘in the crosshairs’ for a massive and devastating earthquake along its most vulnerable faults – including the infamous San Andreas.
‘California is super overdue,’ Burns warned during a livestream on YouTube. ‘What areas in California are now at greater risk? In general, just all of California but really more Southern California would be at greater risk because of this.’
The scientist explained that energy released during the magnitude 7.4 earthquake in San Jose Del Palmar does not stay local.
Those seismic waves and stress changes travel through the Earth and can ‘load’ geological faults thousands of miles away with more pressure that will eventually cause more earthquakes.
Burns specifically singled out the US, noting that major earthquake hotspots such as the West Coast and the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the Midwest may be ‘activated’ by the deadly quake that has killed at least 132 people.
He warned that the next six to 12 months will be a critical time, especially in California, as many mega earthquakes throughout recent history have occurred within months of each other.
‘It’s that six [month] to one year time frame that we’re worried about, and if we get kind of past that then maybe we can start to breathe a bit of a sigh of relief. But because we’ve been seeing so much activity in Northern California, it’s hard to rule out Northern California. So really all of California is problematic right now.’
