The contest to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress is attracting renewed attention after prediction-market odds swung sharply toward California state Sen. Scott Wiener, leaving former House speaker’s preferred candidate, San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, behind.
Kalshi gave Wiener an 83% chance of winning California’s 11th Congressional District on Election Day, according to the platform’s race tracking.
The movement came despite Pelosi’s endorsement of Chan, who is campaigning to take over the San Francisco-based seat held by the longtime congresswoman.
Polymarket showed a similar divide, placing Wiener’s odds at 83% and Chan’s at 19%.
Pelosi’s backing has not translated into a smooth transfer of her longtime San Francisco congressional seat. Instead, prediction-market odds have moved decisively toward Wiener in his contest with her chosen successor.
Kalshi showed Wiener’s chances of winning the district climbing from 82% to 94% between noon and 6:30 p.m. Tuesday.
The sharp shift came even as Pelosi deployed her considerable political influence behind Chan, who has struggled to close the gap with Wiener in recent polling.
A University of Southern California poll released Oct. 22 showed Wiener ahead of Chan, 47% to 41%, while 9% of likely voters remained undecided. The survey of 454 likely voters had a 4.6-percentage-point margin of error, meaning the candidates’ support fell within the poll’s margin of error.
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Pelosi remains popular in the district. According to the USC survey, 55% of voters approved of her performance. That standing, however, has not automatically carried over to her preferred successor.
The race is San Francisco’s first major contest for Pelosi’s House seat since she initially won the district in 1987.
Both Democratic candidates align on several national issues, including opposition to President Donald Trump and support for immigrant and LGBTQ rights. Their campaigns, however, reflect competing factions within San Francisco’s Democratic Party.
Wiener, a veteran state lawmaker, is generally regarded as the more establishment-oriented Democrat. Chan represents the city’s progressive wing and has drawn backing from labor unions and left-wing activists.
Pelosi has played an active role in the succession battle, endorsing Chan before the primary and helping her reach the general election.
But Pelosi and Wiener have reportedly maintained a tense relationship since the state senator signaled his interest in succeeding her, before Pelosi had announced plans to retire.
Pelosi’s decision to support Chan was widely interpreted as a rebuke of Wiener, turning the contest into an unusually personal struggle over who will inherit one of San Francisco’s most influential political seats.
