As Congress races toward the July 4th deadline to approve President Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill,’ some Republican members are threatening to vote against it, which could jeopardize this major piece of the White House’s agenda.
Insiders on Capitol Hill think they’re bluffing – and see most climbing aboard at the last possible moment.
According to a House GOP aide speaking to the Daily Mail, ‘Most of them will eventually give in. It’s no longer about principles; it’s about ambitious members seeking maximum attention.’
A small group of Republicans in Congress have voiced concerns about the current format of Trump’s key policy initiative, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB). Their issues span from AI overregulation, Medicaid cuts, rural hospital funding, to deficit reduction.
Republican Representatives Chip Roy, Andy Harris, Victoria Spartz and more were named by Capitol Hill sources as those most likely to flip and back the bill despite their noisy opposition. Harris and Roy, for example, threatened to hold up the OBBB in the House before ultimately voting for it in late May.
This week, the Trump administration has ramped up the pressure, deploying a slew of social media posts by the president on top of visits from Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Capitol Hill.
Once the Senate figures out its version and Trump decides to personally apply more pressure, Capitol Hill aides believe the hardheaded opposition will eventually melt away like a popsicle on a summer city sidewalk.
‘The biggest bluffers are the Medicaid moderates,’ a senior House GOP aide told the Daily Mail, adding that Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska is one of the Republicans most upset by Medicaid reforms.
President Donald Trump has called on Congress to pass his marquee policy agenda before July 4th, but some lawmakers have publicly voiced their opposition to the current version of the OBBB
Speaker Mike Johnson has said he will push his chamber to meet Trump’s deadline despite members of his caucus currently opposing the OBBB
A former Senate GOP aide shared that most lawmakers will choose to avoid the president’s wrath when the rubber meets the road.
‘Of course most of the holdouts will eventually back President Trump and vote for the bill,’ the former aide told the Daily Mail. ‘Even though their constituents probably agree with a lot of their objections —they will rightly calculate that the political risk of drawing President Trump’s ire or failing to stop huge tax hikes would far outweigh the reward of a protest vote.’
The former staffer added: ‘President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will pass, warts and all.’
The House passed its version of the OBBB in late May by just a single vote. Multiple Republicans defected at the time and voted against the over 1,000-page bill because it was not conservative enough.
According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the House-passed OBBB framework carries an eye-watering price tag of $2.4 – $2.77 trillion. Though that price is likely to change once the Senate finishes its version of the bill.
Reps. Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson were the lone GOPers to vote ‘no’ on the bill over concerns on how the package will impact the deficit.
The bill is now with the Senate, and the tweaks made by GOP lawmakers in the upper chamber have made some House members fume.
In addition, the Senate Parliamentarian struck down key Republican provisions in the reconciliation bill, declaring they cannot remain in the bill due to Senate rules.
One of those provisions slashed is meant to prevent illegal immigrants from collecting Medicaid – a move that has enraged many House lawmakers, and even prompted many to call for the parliamentarian’s removal from her post.
There are multiple internal GOP factions currently vying for different additions and cuts to the mega-bill.
Many Republican moderates have expressed distaste with deep Medicaid cuts, members of the House Freedom Caucus – a conservative cohort of the lower chamber – are upset with the spending levels and lawmakers in blue states are most concerned with state and local tax (SALT) reforms.
‘You have so many [Republicans] trying to inject themselves into the Senate’s process by drawing red lines it’s laughable,’ the senior House GOP aide shared. ‘It’s true the Senate has had significant setbacks with the parliamentarian, but these House guys’ posturing is setting themselves up for a rude awakening.’
In the House, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is upset with an AI provision that would hamper states’ ability to regulate the nascent tech.
Trump and Johnson have been working closely together on the OBBB. Johnson has said he is on the phone with the president nearly everyday and that Trump is very involved in the process
Many Republican moderates have expressed distaste with deep Medicaid cuts, members of the House Freedom Caucus – a conservative cohort of the lower chamber – are upset with the spending levels and lawmakers in blue states are most concerned with state and local tax (SALT) reforms. House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris has said he is against the current version of the OBBB before the Senate. But one Capitol Hill insider told the Daily Mail he will likely end up voting for the measure
House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris and Reps. Chip Roy and Ralph Norman, meanwhile, have decried the price tag of the overall bill.
‘Chip Roy will for sure,’ buckle and vote for the bill under pressure, the GOP House aide shared, adding that Harris would also fold.
‘We didn’t realize demanding fiscal responsibility, opposing trillion-dollar deficit hikes, and fighting swamp subsidies counted as “bluffing,”‘ a source familiar with the HFC chairman responded.
‘Leader Thune made a commitment,’ another GOP aide added. ‘He should honor his commitment and help the House finish a transformative bill that the American people are counting on Congress to deliver.’
New York Republican Nick Lalota has said he’s a ‘no for now’ until SALT reforms are made.
Other ‘bluffers’ who will eventually back the OBBB despite previously voicing doubts include Rep. Victoria Spartz, Tim Burchett, Eric Burlison and Josh Breechen.
‘The Senate version, as it stands currently, cuts out many of the key provisions from the House bill that the President wanted,’ a spokesperson for Burchett told the Daily Mail. ‘The Congressman always votes his conscience, and will continue to do so when it is time to vote on the OBBB.’
Still, most House Republicans say they are flexible and are waiting to see the final text passed by the Senate.
Reps. Tim Burchett of Tennessse (L) and Victoria Spartz of Indiana (C) are said to be some of the GOP lawmakers bluffing about their opposition to Trump’s OBBB
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has said he hopes to get a floor vote on the OBBB by Saturday at the latest
A crop of upper chamber Republicans are also making a fuss.
GOP Sens. Josh Hawley, Thom Tillis, Lisa Murkoswki, Susan Collins and Jerry Moran have all expressed concern over a provider tax provision that could cut funding to rural hospitals.
A Senate GOP aide told the Daily Mail Tillis, who faces re-election in 2026, will fold ‘100 percent.’
‘He has to vote for it or else Trump will support a primary challenger,’ they added, noting a longstanding feud between Trump and the North Carolina senator.
As the Senate continues to finalize its version of the bill, time is running out.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said this week he hopes to have the chamber vote on the OBBB on Saturday, however, it’s unclear whether the text of the measure will be ready.
Should the Senate pass the bill by then, the House would have to sprint to align itself with all of the changes before July 4th on next Friday.
The president plans on hosting a ceremony at the White House on Independence Day to sign the landmark legislation, though if the Senate delays its vote – and therefore the vote in the House – Trump may not get his desired celebration.
‘It’s important. It’s not the end all. We can go longer,’ Trump said of the July 4th deadline for the OBBB on Friday.
‘But, we’d like to get it done by that time if possible.’
