Despite being well into May, the weather in parts of the country hasn’t quite embraced spring, creating challenges for making MLB home run prop picks. Recent snow caused a Mets-Rockies game to be postponed, and teams across the Midwest and East Coast continue to battle windy conditions. Although tonight’s forecasts aren’t ideal, no games are expected to be rained out. It’s a simple fact: as temperatures rise, so do home runs. With that in mind, we have selected a couple of MLB home run picks for you.
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Last Friday, my MLB betting HR picks spotlighted the Braves’ Ozzie Albies and the Rangers’ Joc Pederson. As I often mention, when I suggest a home run, betting on Over 1.5 total bases is a smart and more likely strategy. Although Albies didn’t hit a home run at Coors Field, he did manage a double. Meanwhile, Pederson, who was a longshot pick, continued his challenging season with an 0-for-3 performance.
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Top Friday MLB home run picks
Juan Soto, Mets (+249, DraftKings)
As for Juan Soto, the 27-year-old has hit at least 40 home runs in each of the past two seasons but has only managed four so far this year. Part of the reason is his stint on the injured list, limiting him to just 22 games. Soto’s chances could improve significantly once All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor returns to the lineup, offering him more opportunities to see hittable pitches.
Soto did end a five-game homer drought on Wednesday, but that shot almost gets an asterisk because it was at Coors Field. He’s still only batting .174 this month and slugging .391. But he will be playing at hitter-friendly Chase Field in Phoenix on Friday and facing a struggling right-hander in Ryne Nelson, who is 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and seven homers allowed in just 31.1 innings. At home, he’s been even worse: 0-2 with a 14.40 ERA and four homers allowed in three starts spanning 10.0 innings.
You can’t really play Soto against lefties right now as his OPS against them is a paltry .632 with a single homer. Against Nelson, he is 3-for-12 with two homers and a triple.
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Zach Neto, Angels (+590, FanDuel)
I’m assuming you have seen the baseball movies “Major League” and “Bull Durham,” among others. Those show you how baseball guys are more superstitious, it seems, than any other pro athlete. Hall of Famer Wade Boggs, for example, would only eat chicken before every game, earning the nickname “Chicken Man.” Hey, whatever works for you.
One of my favorite stories of this MLB season happened Tuesday when Zach Neto, the Angels’ shortstop, entered the game hitless in 18 straight at-bats to see his average drop 30 points. He hadn’t homered since way back on April 10. So what did Neto do prior to Tuesday vs. the White Sox? Opened some Pokémon cards with future Hall of Famer Mike Trout.
“He texted me [Tuesday morning] about ripping Pokémon cards, and if we found a Charizard card, I was going to hit a home run,” Neto said postgame. And both Neto and Trout went yard. Bring that deck to Toronto for Friday’s opener fellas!
Neto has pretty good power for a not-towering shortstop, having hit 26 bombs last year. He has six in 38 games in 2026. Neto will be facing the nasty Dylan Cease tonight, and he wouldn’t normally be a guy I’d recommend a home run prop against because Cease strikes out and walks so many that oftentimes the ball isn’t put in play. He has only allowed one dinger in 38.1 innings.
But Neto has good limited splits off Cease at 3-for-7 with two homers, good for an OPS of 1.786. That’s fantastic at this price. I certainly wouldn’t play Trout for a homer as he’s 2-for-12 with no extra-base hits and eight strikeouts vs. Cease. Nolan Schanuel is 4-for-8 with a homer and double against Cease, so he’s another possibility.
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