Nigel Farage is rallying right-wing voters to support the Reform party in a bid to thwart Andy Burnham, as a recent poll suggests the Makerfield by-election is highly competitive.
The initial poll results show Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham leading with 43% support, while Nigel Farage’s Reform party is closely trailing at 40%.
The margin narrows further with Restore Britain, a party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, capturing 7% support, and the Conservatives lagging behind at 2%.
Commenting on the Survation poll, Farage emphasized the competitive nature of the race in this pro-Brexit constituency, stating, “Robert Kenyon is the sole contender capable of stopping Andy Burnham. This is a two-horse race—no other candidates are even close.”
The polling data has reignited discussions about forming broader alliances on the Right to prevent a victory for the Left.
Meanwhile, Rupert Lowe has gained a high-profile endorsement from Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person, and has vowed to ramp up his campaign efforts in Makerfield.
Kemi Badenoch has ruled out ‘any deals’ with Reform.
The first poll of the contest put Labour on 43 per cent support, with Reform on 40 per cent as Andy Burnham (pictured) bids to return to the Commons
The parties have been ramping up their efforts this weekend, with less than a month until the vote on June 18.
The tightness of the poll numbers reflects a big personal bounce for Mr Burnham. Without him as the candidate Labour was seen as losing to Reform by a 11 point margin.
Public opinion is notoriously hard to sample in by-elections, so the outcome appears too close to call.
Some Tory MPs have privately supported a pact with Mr Farage’s party at the by-election.
Former Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg told the Daily Mail today that the message from the poll was ‘if you want Andy Burnham to be Prime Minister, vote Restore’.
‘It looks as if Conservative voters have decided to vote tactically,’ Sir Jacob said.
‘They clearly think that avoiding hard-Left Burnham – or flip-flop Burnham, whichever you prefer – is more important than their historic loyalties. And Restore voters don’t.
‘Voting for Restore is a waste and it’s bad for the country.’
Sir Jacob said he still believed there should have been a ‘quid pro quo’ with Reform, with the Conservatives giving way in Makerfield in return for a clear run in the Aberdeen South by-election.
The former business secretary said he would like Mr Farage to deliver the same message about uniting behind the best-placed contender in the Scottish constituency.
In contrast to the Right, so far Mr Burnham looks to be benefiting from relatively low support for the Greens and Lib Dems.
The Greens suffered a major blow last week when their candidate quit after sharing a post calling an arson attack on Jewish ambulances in London a ‘false flag’ operation.
The mayor is hoping that his local ‘star power’ can overcome the wider misery for Labour, after one of his allies dramatically quit to hand him a route back to Parliament.
On Friday Mr Burnham painted his bid to return to the House of Commons as an opportunity to get rid of Keir Starmer.
He said victory would mean ‘changing Labour’, with the widespread expectation he would mount a quick challenge for the keys to No10.
But Mr Burnham has been coming under increasing scrutiny over what direction he would take the Government.
He has already backed off his pledge to rejoin the EU – a view popular among MPs but regarded as deeply unhelpful in an area that heavily endorsed Brexit.
Mr Burnham was believed to have told Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood he supports her tough immigration crackdown.
However, he has now wavered on whether changes to indefinite leave to remain should be retrospective – regarded as crucial for addressing the wave of arrivals from recent years.
Critics have also accused Mr Burnham of watering down his commitment to a proportional representation – PR – voting system.
Other policies floated by the mayor in the past include increasing the top rate of tax to 50p, while he has praised Gordon Brown’s disastrous 10p tax rate.
But that was effectively ruled out during this Parliament by his comments on Friday, when he formally launched his campaign.
‘I am committed to the manifesto commitments on tax. I think that’s really important from the trust, from the trust point of view,’ Mr Burnham said.
Nigel Farage said the contest was a ‘two horse race’. Reform’s candidate is Robert Kenyon, left
He has also suggested that ‘wealth’ would be shifted from the South to the North of England, with fears a council tax overhaul and ‘land value tax’ could leave millions of families with bigger bills.
Caveating the poll, Survation said it should be treated as an early indication of the situation in the Makerfield contest.
The firm said: ‘It is important to stress the early nature of this fieldwork. The period covered reflects a volatile candidate picture – the Green candidate entering and withdrawing from the contest – as well as Restore Britain’s entry, and was conducted largely prior to Andy Burnham’s campaign launch Friday May 22.’
