As 2025 dawned a 40-year-old Norwegian man called Jørgen set out his hopes for the coming year.

In particular, he spoke about his dismay at the increasing polarization, and the ‘rise of autocratic political tendencies’ around the world.

He expressed concern about the decline in freedom of expression, even in democratic countries, stating, “More alarming was the deterioration of freedom of speech even in democratic nations. In the United States, President Donald Trump made over 100 verbal attacks on the media throughout his election campaign.”

Such sentiments might be expected from a liberal speaking in Scandinavia but the man’s words will reverberate at the White House.

They were spoken by Jørgen Watne Frydnes who, above all others, will determine whether President Trump is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Frydnes, a proponent of human rights, serves as the Secretary General of PEN Norway, an organization dedicated to defending freedom of expression. He was chosen by the country’s parliament to lead the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which is responsible for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize.

At 11am local time on October 10, he will make the announcement at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo.

The winner is determined by Frydnes along with four other committee members, all appointed by parliament. In the event that they cannot arrive at a consensus, a majority vote will decide the outcome.

An analysis of past statements by the five voters suggests three are likely to be against Trump.

However, despite that, there is still a chance it could go his way.

The vice chair of the committee has previously expressed sentiments that could be viewed as sympathetic by the White House.

And where the fifth vote stands is unclear, but it is held by an anti-EU former politician who is not considered a liberal in Norway.

According to predictions from the website Kalshi, the current favorite for the prize, with a 24 percent probability, is Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, which has provided crucial humanitarian aid amidst the civil war.

Other leading candidates include Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the deceased Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, along with the International Court of Justice and Doctors Without Borders.

President Trump is the joint fifth favorite, roughly tied with Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg.

This week, Thunberg, age 22, was arrested when Israel intercepted a convoy of 40 boats heading to Gaza. She is anticipated to be deported back to Europe.

Trump has previously mocked Thunberg as a ‘strange person’ who should ‘go to an anger management class.’

Adding spice to the mix, in the background, an extraordinary war of words has been going on between the influential left-wing husband of one of the committee members, and the vice chair.

The anti-Trump sentiment on the committee is perhaps not surprising, considering the president’s lack of popularity in Norway.

Research by Statista shows only 10 percent of Norwegians would have cast a ballot for Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election if they had been eligible to vote.

A Nobel committee vote not expected to go to Trump belongs to Gry Larsen, the former leader of the Norwegian Labour Party’s Workers’ Youth League.

On November 2, 2020, the day before the US election, Larsen posted a picture of herself on Facebook wearing a Trump-style red hat, but emblazoned with the words ‘Make Human Rights Great Again.’

Earlier, in 2017, writing on X about Trump’s abortion policies, she said: ‘Trump is putting millions of lives at risk.’

A third vote considered unlikely is Kristin Clemet who, even though she has been a prominent figure in Norway’s Conservative Party, seems to have made her opinion of Trump clear on social media.

The day after the January 6, 2021 riot at the U.S, Capitol she wrote on social media: ‘Strange to hear that no one has understood that Trump is dangerous.’

In 2022 she posted that an 18-year-old had said: ‘I’m happier that we can have a king and queen than that we could have such presidents who can suddenly wreck the country.’

In May this year she wrote: ‘After just over 100 days as president (Trump) is well underway in dismantling American democracy and he is doing everything he can to tear down the liberal and rules-based world order.’

But there is hope for Trump yet.

In 2017 Asle Toje, an academic now the vice chair of the committee, wrote an article headlined: ‘Trump is no Hitler.’

In it, he said: ‘The American president is part of a broader change. It is the liberal order that is falling.’

Since then he has been on the receiving end of a barrage of criticism from Clemet’s husband, Michael Tetzschner, a major figure in the Conservative Party and the former mayor of Oslo.

In April, Tetzschner savaged Toje in an article in Norway’s biggest newspaper, Aftenposten, suggesting he would ‘thrive well’ in right wing European movements like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) or with French politician Marine Le Pen.

‘The anxiety of America’s allies and best friends that the values ​​that the United States and the rest of the West have built on are now being attacked daily by Trump and his circle,’ Tetzschner wrote.

‘When Toje is silent about this, I perceive him as a supporter of a political direction that the Americans themselves will distance themselves from when the dust has settled, as they also did after the McCarthy era.’

Tetzschner went on: ‘True friends of the United States should be concerned that the United States…has been given a leadership that undermines its own institutions.

‘It treats allies as enemies, endangers the economy and people’s savings, and strengthens the enemies of the United States and the rest of the West. That Toje is not worried speaks for itself.’

A month earlier, at the Conservative Party’s national conference, Tetzschner called Trump ‘frighteningly incompetent.’

But there remain signs that Trump is not out of the running.

Last month, Toje said the ultimate winner ends up being ‘very rarely anyone’s first choice.’

Asked by a newspaper in Dubai about the prospects of a ‘political figure’ getting the prize, he pointed out that one of the first Nobel Peace Prizes was awarded to President Theodore Roosevelt for brokering peace between Russia and Japan in 1905, and that it had been ‘hugely controversial.’

Toje added: ‘Even then there was so much tension about the dangers of giving the Nobel Peace Prize to politicians. But ultimately, it is practicing politicians who have the power to bring about change.

‘It is one of the challenges we are always facing. You would be right in saying the prizes awarded to practicing politicians have been most controversial but also most important.’

Toje did not respond to a request for comment from the Daily Mail. 

The fifth vote on the committee belongs to Anne Enger, 75, a former acting Prime Minister of Norway.

She previously led the Centre Party which, as its name suggests, is in the political middle and also particularly represents the interests of farmers.

Enger also led the ‘No to EU’ campaign against Norway joining Europe in a referendum in 1994.

She appears to have never made any public comments about Trump. President Trump himself has spoken many times about the Nobel Peace Prize.

Previous US Presidents who have won it are Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Woodrow Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt.

But Trump. perhaps having been made aware of the makeup of the committee, seems resigned to not winning.

On Tuesday he said he had solved eight wars in eight months, including a potential nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan.

‘That’s pretty good. Nobody’s ever done that. Would you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not,’ he said.

‘They’ll give it to some guy that didn’t do a damn thing, they’ll give it to a guy that wrote a book about the mind of Donald Trump and what it took to solve the war.

‘But we’ll see what happens. But it’s be a big insult to our country. I don’t want it. I want the country to get it, should get it.’

There are 338 nominees for the prize in 2025, consisting of 244 individuals nd 94 organizations

According to the 1895 will of Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel the prize should go to ‘whoever ‘has done the most or best to advance fellowship among nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and the establishment and promotion of peace congresses.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, the committee’s secretary, who takes part in the deliberations but does not vote, said: ‘They will look at the world, see what is happening, what are the global trends, what are the main concerns, what are the most promising processes that we see.

‘And processes here can mean anything from a specific peace process to a new type of international agreement that is under development or that has recently been adopted.’

According to the prediction website Kalshi the current favorite for the prize, with a 24 percent chance, is Sudan’s Emergeny Response Rooms, which has provided humanitarian aid during the civil war.

Other top contenders include Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, the International Court of Justice, and Doctors Without Borders.

President Trump is the joint fifth favorite alongside Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, but ahead of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.