Scientists are warning that hundreds of Australians could die over the coming months as a powerful “super El Niño” drives temperatures far above seasonal averages.
Researchers at the Climate Impact Lab estimate the weather pattern could cause 260 additional heat-related deaths across Australia between September and February, with nearly half of those fatalities expected in New South Wales.
The six-month period is forecast to be around 1.2C warmer than normal as El Niño intensifies heat across the country.
The report, released on Tuesday, projects 61 extra heat deaths in Queensland, 72 in Western Australia, 12 in South Australia and three in the Northern Territory.
Victoria, by contrast, is expected to record a net reduction of 13 heat-related deaths compared with figures recorded between 1996 and 2025.
The findings come as authors Michael Greenstone, Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle and Emily Grover-Kopec predict that an additional 451,000 people worldwide could die during the first nine months of the super El Niño.
“El Niño is effectively pushing us into the future – exposing us to temperatures that won’t be the norm for another two decades – before we have time to adapt and protect ourselves,” they said.
A stark map reveals how hot Australia could become this summer
Scientists say the extreme heat offers a glimpse, or “postcard”, of a future reshaped by the climate crisis
“These unusually warm conditions will mirror the higher temperatures climate change is expected to bring about 20 years from now.
“With current forecasts indicating that El Niño could persist through spring 2027, we expect these figures to rise further. The effects of above-average temperatures and heat-related deaths could also continue into June and July.”
The researchers also estimate that El Niño will produce 44 per cent more “extremely hot” days than would typically be recorded in a normal year.
Poorer regions are expected to bear the heaviest burden of the extreme weather. In Africa’s Sahel region, Nigeria alone could record 31,400 additional deaths between this month and February.
Comparable increases are forecast elsewhere, including 19,300 extra deaths in Indonesia, 17,500 in Sudan, 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
“The unusually high temperatures expected across much of the world during this El Niño are a ‘postcard from the future’. Although they feel abnormal today, they could become routine within just a few decades,” the authors said.
“Near-term mortality projections show where we may be heading if new adaptation measures are not introduced. Unlike the effects already being seen from climate change, there is still time to invest in measures that can save lives.”
The report urged governments to direct emergency funding towards the areas facing the greatest risks. It also recommended heat alerts, health checks for vulnerable people, cooling centres, hydration stations and stronger protections for outdoor workers.
Australians are being urged to prepare for a potentially scorching start to summer as a strengthening El Niño raises the risk of unusually hot days, oppressive nights, heatwaves and dangerous fire conditions
“We need to establish the evidence now on what works, then invest in preparation and planning,” the authors said.
“Preparing for a hotter future will demand a much more detailed and constantly updated understanding of the measures that save lives across different regions, climates and health systems.”
The Bureau of Meteorology says temperatures are likely to remain above average across most of the country through the end of the year, while its climate models indicate the developing El Niño could become the strongest on record.
– READ MORE: ‘Supercharged’: El Nino brings drier, hotter conditions
