President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs have left many American consumers and businesses anxious about rising prices. However, for residents of one strongly Republican state, the impact could be even more severe.

Montana, where Trump achieved a decisive 20-point victory in the recent election, is expected to be the most affected by Trump’s import tariffs and the retaliatory duties from U.S. trading partners.

This picturesque state in the Mountain West faces heightened vulnerability due to its extensive trade activities with Canada, Mexico, and China—the countries most heavily targeted by Trump’s trade policies.

Montana is also at risk because it trades heavily in goods being singled out for tariffs. The state is an importer of crude oil, cars and gasoline, and an exporter of wheat, oilseeds, chemicals, and machinery.

The finance site LendingTree ranked Montana as the ‘most vulnerable’ US state to a trade war, based on 2023 Census data – with a whopping 94.3 percent of its imports coming from Canada, Mexico and China. Montana also sends many of its exports to those three nations.

By comparison, the next most vulnerable state in the ranking, New Mexico, had just under 77 percent of its imports coming from the three countries. 

Trump acknowledged that consumers will be hit by price hikes in the short term, and that his tariffs could push the US economy into recession. But the president has framed the impacts as short-term pain for long-term gain.

Tariffs will correct America’s trade deficit with other countries, encourage more manufacturing in the US, and strengthen the economy overall, Trump said – claims that are questioned by top economists.

Chris Mehl, former mayor of Bozeman and a one-time commissioner in southern Montana city, said Trump’s tariffs are ‘ringing alarm bells’ among farmers, miners, and others that lean Republican but could be clobbered by a trade war.

‘There is concern, especially among the agriculture community,’ Mehl told the Daily Mail.

‘Prices stand to go up on in both directions, and that’s a problem, especially in rural areas.’

The Trump administration is set to announce sweeping tariffs on Wednesday that could include reciprocal tariffs all nations, dubbing the event ‘Liberation Day.’

At the same time, US tariffs on foreign-made automobiles and parts could also take effect.

The details of Trump’s next round of import taxes are still sketchy. Most economic analyses say average US families would have to absorb the cost of his tariffs in the form of higher prices and lower incomes.

But Trump says they will drive up investment in the US, and he has hinted that the tariffs could be short-lived. The president said he is ‘certainly open’ to cutting a trade deal with foreign governments after imposing them.

Wall Street has been rocked by volatility over uncertainty regarding the tariff proposals. The benchmark S&P 500 index is down almost 6 percent for the year, its worst start since 2020.

The turbulence has been felt in Helena, Montana’s capital, and across the state of 1.1 million people.

Montana imports nearly 92 percent of its goods from tariff-hit Canada. This includes more than $6.8 billion per year in potash, which is used in fertilizer, and crude oil headed to refineries around Billings and elsewhere, among other goods. 

Meanwhile, Montana sends $860 million worth of goods to Canada, much of it in the form of lentils, peas, chickpeas, breeder cattle, and other produce from the state’s 58 million acres of farmland.

Paul Kanning, a pulse farmer at TomTilda Farm in Flaxville in northeastern Montana, recently warned that tariffs would hurt the state’s farmers who depend on exports.

During Trump’s trade battle with China in 2018, Montana’s wheat, soybean, and corn exporters faced months of market turmoil. That year, federal subsidies to Montana grew by $140 million to offset trade-related losses.

‘During the last round of tariff wars six years ago, it absolutely wreaked havoc on the prices we get here on farms in Montana,’ Kanning told The Missoulian.

‘Our overall exports fell by 37 percent. And when you get that large of a drop in exports, there ends up being way too much on the market here in Montana, and that drives prices down.’

Back then, Chinese importers started sourcing produce from other suppliers, meaning Montana’s farmers lost their customers over the long term. Kanning said it has taken years to rebuild global export lines.

Montanans also face price hikes at the grocery store, because so much of what lines their shelves is imported from outside the US, notably from Canada and Mexico.

Robert Sonora, a University of Montana economics professor, said that while importers pay the duties when produce crosses the border, about 80-90 percent of those costs are passed on to consumers.

Consumers should expect higher prices for ‘anything we buy that’s imported,’ Sonora told MTN News, adding that ‘uncertainty’ over which tariffs will take effect make it hard to offer definitive predictions.

Likewise, Mehl wondered whether the economic pain felt by Montana businesses and consumers will translate into losses for Trump’s Republican Party in next year’s midterm elections.

Too many questions remain unanswered, he added, including whether the tariffs are part of a long-term economic plan to revive US manufacturing, or a negotiating tactic to pressure trade partners to lift their own tariffs or cut subsidies.

‘We’re a very rural state, and the rural areas are pretty red, and I don’t see that changing fundamentally,’ Mehl told the Daily Mail.

‘Certainly the grumbling is up, but whether that translates into concrete action is hard to say at this point.’

According to LendingTree, Montana is among eight US states that receive at least two thirds of their imports from Canada, Mexico, and China – the exporters most directly impacted by Trump’s trade war.

New Mexico, Vermont, Michigan, Maine, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Iowa, and South Dakota will also be badly hit, researchers said. 

Hawaii, New Jersey and Maryland are the least impacted.