A newly formed tropical storm in the Pacific is drawing close attention from forecasters, with some computer models suggesting it could eventually track toward densely populated Southern California.
Tropical Storm Karina developed Thursday afternoon, packing clusters of thunderstorms and sustained winds topping 45 mph. The National Hurricane Center said the system is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday night.
In its first forecast, the NHC indicated Karina would most likely remain well offshore while gaining strength near Mexico’s coast. However, newer weather model runs have raised the possibility that the storm could curve toward the U.S. West Coast in the coming days.
So-called spaghetti models, which map a range of potential tracks for tropical storms and hurricanes, show several scenarios in which Karina bends eastward and moves toward the Southern California coastline, with possible impacts somewhere between San Diego and Los Angeles.
The NHC said Karina’s outer impacts already extend more than 200 miles from its center and are expected to reach southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. Coastal areas could see rough surf and an increased risk of dangerous rip currents.
No hurricane has ever made landfall in California in recorded history, according to the National Weather Service.
The most recent tropical storm to affect the state came in 1997, when the remnants of Hurricane Nora moved north from Mexico into the United States while still maintaining tropical storm strength.
Current projections from the American forecast model, known as the GFS, show at least six possible tracks for Karina that could bring the storm into the California coast as it moves through the Pacific.
Tropical Storm Karina (Seen on radar) officially developed on August 27, 2026
Weather models predict that Tropical Storm Karina may turn towards Southern California, potentially hitting San Diego or Los Angeles
A tropical storm has not taken such a path, from the ocean straight into Southern California, in nearly a century, when the Long Beach Tropical Storm landed in 1939.
Not all forecasting models agree with early tracks from the GFS model, including the so-called European model, also known as the EPS Ensemble. That system currently has Karina staying away from the California Coast and moving out to sea.
It is important to note that forecast models can shift dramatically once storms form and get closer to making landfall. The farther into the future a forecast model tries to predict, the weaker the certainty of it being correct gets.
Tropical Storm Karina is currently 1,500 miles south of San Diego and NHC believes Karina will remain at hurricane strength through next Tuesday. It is not known if the storm will strengthen into a major hurricane, meaning Category 3 and sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
Three years ago this month, Hurricane Hilary impacted Southern California, but weather officials later determined that the storm was no longer a named cyclone when it made landfall.
Although the Pacific regularly sees tropical storms and hurricanes develop each summer, these cyclones rarely approach the US West Coast.
That is because a cyclone needs sea surface temperatures to reach 80 degrees Fahrenheit or higher to maintain their strength.
However, the California Current brings much colder water closer to the coast, preventing major storms from making landfall.
Beachgoers in Los Angeles (Pictured) may see the first named storm threaten California in three decades (Stock Image)
Pictured: A maintenance vehicle clears mud near stranded vehicles along a flooded street after Tropical Storm Hilary struck Cathedral City, California on August 21, 2023 (File Image)
Storms are also blocked from reaching California by prevailing northeast trade winds which steer eastern Pacific weather systems to the west – towards Hawaii or open water.
The state is more often affected by the remnants of major storms that roar to life in the Pacific but eventually fade into nothing more than giant rainstorms by the time they reach land.
That may change in 2026, as a ‘Super’ El Niño has formed in the Pacific which is driving up sea surface temperatures dramatically and affecting weather patterns around the world.
El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that simply means that the Pacific Ocean has become noticeably warmer than its historical average. A Super El Niño means those temperatures have risen by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2.0 degrees Celsius).
AccuWeather meteorologists have predicted that this year’s El Niño will likely be the strongest in recorded history, with sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific rising by 4.8°F (2.66°C).
AccuWeather’s lead long range forecaster Paul Pastelok previously told Our News Outlet that both California and Arizona need to be prepared for an unusually wet year, especially during hurricane season, which does not end until November 30.
The senior meteorologist noted in June that the Super El Niño in the Pacific may bring a historic tropical storm or hurricane to California.
Pastelok warned: ‘There could be some insane flooding that could take place, not only just in the summer, but it could even be out of season as well into the wintertime.’
‘You gotta watch the combination of the monsoon and marine heatwave. A marine heatwave that’s near the Baja, with El Niño combined, you’ve got three things working to possibly produce some unusual type of wet weather in Southern California, Phoenix, Tucson, in that area there.’
