The Group H permutations are not exactly straightforward, so it is worth taking them one step at a time.
Here is how things stand, by my reading, for each team trying to secure a place in the knockout stages.
Spain will book their place in the last 32 as one of the top two teams if they avoid defeat against Uruguay in the coming hours.
Even if Spain are beaten, they would still finish in the top two unless Cape Verde defeat Saudi Arabia. And even in that scenario, Spain would sit third on four points, which should still be enough to carry them through.
In short, it would take a major collapse for Spain not to advance from here.
As for Uruguay, their route is a little more delicate.
A win over Spain would send Uruguay through. If they draw, however, they can only finish in the top two if Cape Verde also draw their match.
Should Uruguay and Cape Verde both win, they would be level at the top of the group. If both draw, they would be tied for second. Because their head-to-head meeting ended level, goal difference would come into play — and at the moment, both sides are even on zero.
If goal difference remains identical – which it would in case of a draw – positions will be decided first by the better disciplinary record (Cape Verde -3, Uruguay -2) and then by Fifa world ranking, which Uruguay hold.
