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Potentially significant shifts may be occurring on the battlefield of Russia’s war in Ukraine, some western officials say.
Air vice-marshal Mick Smeath, London’s defence attaché in Washington, said British intelligence assesses that Ukrainian forces probably have retaken two towns west of Kyiv, the capital.
It is likely that successful counterattacks by Ukraine will disrupt the ability of Russian forces to reorganise and resume their own offensive towards Kyiv,” Smeath said.
Ukraine says it is now shifting to the offensive and has pushed back Russian forces, including north of Kyiv after repelling five Russian attacks in the country’s east on Thursday.
Russian troops did not have enough resources to push ahead with their offensive in Ukraine, Oleksander Motuzyanyk, Ukraine’s defence ministry spokesperson said.
The latest UK ministry of defence intelligence report claimed Ukraine is now striking “high value targets” that is forcing Russian forces to divert resources to defend their supply lines. It cited the attacks on a landing ship and ammunition storage depots at Berdyansk as examples of valuable targets.
Ukrainian forces have launched strikes against high value targets in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, including a landing ship and ammunition storage depots at Berdyansk.
It is likely that the Ukrainians will continue to target logistical assets in Russian-held areas. This will force the Russian military to prioritise the defence of their supply chain and deprive them of much needed resupply for forces.
This will reduce Russia’s ability to conduct offensive operations, and further damage already dwindling morale.”
Russia is running out of precision guided munitions and it is more likely to rely on so-called dumb bombs and artillery, a senior Pentagon official said on Thursday, Reuters reports.
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl speculated that he did not believe President Vladimir Putin wanted to have an all out conflict with Nato.
Earlier, we reported that three US officials claimed Russia is suffering high failure rates as high as 60% for some of its precision-guided missiles while its forces have taken heavy casualties and are low on supplies.
According to an Associated Press report, Russian shortcomings in Ukraine might be the biggest shock of the war so far. After two decades of modernisation and professionalisation, Putin’s forces have proved to be “ill-prepared, poorly coordinated and surprisingly stoppable”, the news agency said.
The extent of Russian troop losses is not known in detail, although Nato estimates that between 7,000 and 15,000 have died in the first four weeks — potentially as many as Russia lost in a decade of war in Afghanistan. Ukraine’s general staff of the armed forces have claimed Russian losses to be as high as 15,600.
Robert Gates, the former CIA director and defense secretary, said Putin “has got to be stunningly disappointed” in his military’s performance.
“Here we are in Ukraine seeing conscripts not knowing why they’re there, not being very well trained, and just huge problems with command and control, and incredibly lousy tactics,” Gates said at a forum recently.
In a video message posted to his official Facebook account, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy shared his appearance at the EU summit where he thanked European Council members for putting sanctions on Russia but said it was “a little late.”
Zelenskiy said if the sanctions had been preventative, there was a chance Russia would not have gone to war. He told the council:
You applied sanctions. We are grateful. These are powerful steps but it was a little late.
If it had been preventative, Russia would not have gone to war …
You blocked Nord Stream 2. We are grateful to you. And rightly so. But it was also a little late. Because if it had been in time, Russia would not have created a gas crisis. At least there was a chance.
The Russian military does not see what dignity is. They do not know what conscience is. They do not understand why we value our freedom so much. This is what determines how the country will live.”
He said Russia has already destroyed 230 schools, 155 kindergartens and killed 128 children in Ukraine.
Whole cities, villages. Just to ashes. Nothing remains.
The Russian military killed journalists. Although they saw the inscription ‘Press’ on them. They may not have been taught to read. Only to kill.”
Recent images from inside the Ukrainian southern city of Mariupol show long, winding lines of trapped citizens waiting to collect humanitarian aid.
Others show Russian troops driving armoured vehicles past local residents through the city.
Source: This post first appeared on The Guardian
