Republican Bruce Blakeman is within striking distance in New York’s closely watched governor’s race, according to a new poll that shows the conservative challenger trailing Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul by just four points.
Hochul, the incumbent seeking another term, leads Blakeman 49.6% to 45.7% among likely voters, the survey by McLaughlin & Associates for the Blakeman campaign found. Blakeman currently serves as Nassau County executive.
Another 4.7% of likely voters remain undecided, according to the poll, which was conducted Aug. 27-31 and surveyed 800 likely voters.
The tight margin points to a potentially volatile New York governor’s race and suggests unease among voters over Hochul’s leadership of the Empire State.
Pollsters found that 55% of voters do not hold a favorable view of Hochul, a warning sign for an incumbent heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
“The majority of voters (56%) believe that it’s time to give someone else a chance to do better, while only 38% say Kathy Hochul has performed well enough as Governor to deserve re-election,” pollster John McLaughlin wrote in a memo summarizing the findings.
“The results show New York voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the state and Governor Hochul continues to miss critical benchmarks for a safe incumbent, leaving the opportunity for Bruce Blakeman to defeat Kathy Hochul this November.”
Even so, Blakeman has little room to coast. With the Nov. 3 election less than two months away, the Republican challenger still faces a major name-recognition challenge statewide.
Almost a third of likely voters (30%) admit they have either never heard of him or don’t have an opinion on him, according to the survey.
An independent poll conducted by Siena College last month showed Hochul leading by 10 percentage points — 49% to 39% — among likely voters, with the remainder undecided.
Unsurprisingly, Hochul trounces Blakeman 60% to 33% among likely voters in deep-blue New York City, with 7% undecided, according to the new McLaughlin & Associates poll.
Blakeman, for his part, leads Hochul by 5 points (51% to 46%) upstate and by 10 points (53% to 43%) in the suburbs.
However, the Republican would need a huge turnout in the suburbs and upstate to overcome Hochul’s enormous advantage in the Big Apple, or he would need to cut into her lead in the city.
The polling memo also omits mention of President Trump, a Blakeman pal, who is deeply unpopular in New York.
In the recent Siena poll, 60% of voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance while only 37% approved.
The Hochul campaign and the state Democratic Party are spending millions of dollars on ads seeking to tie Blakeman to Trump, who has heartily endorsed the Republican nominee.
But the Blakeman camp said Hochul and her record are on the ballot this year — and she can’t run away from it.
“The Worst Governor in America is on the ropes, and New Yorkers have had enough. This November, they’re going to fire Kathy Hochul and elect me to make New York affordable again, keep families here, and build a new era where everyone has the opportunity to prosper,” Blakeman said.
The question remains whether Blakeman and Republicans can raise enough funds down the stretch to counter the enormous cash advantage held by Hochul and the Democrats.
“Friends for Kathy Hochul” reported $21 million on hand ahead of the election, according to July campaign filings. In addition, the state Democratic Party had an additional $22 million in its coffers.
Blakeman’s campaign and the allied Nassau County Republican Party and other GOP groups have raised about $11 million, though outside pro-Blakeman Super Pacs are now raising and spending money to aid him.
Two other polls released earlier this summer by pro-Blakeman groups also claim the race is close.
The Strong & Safe Super PAC, backed by Knicks owner James Dolan, found that Hochul only leads Blakeman by 4 points (47% to 43%).
A survey conducted by co/efficient for the Coalition to Protect New York Taxpayers had Hochul ahead of Blakeman by only 6 points (47% to 41%).
In 2022, Hochul defeated then-Long Island Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin by just 6 points (53% to 47%). Zeldin is now the Trump-appointed US Environmental Protection Agency Administrator.
“At this point in time, the incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul has very high negatives, Bruce Blakeman is favorable, and the close gap on the ballot is surmountable given the electorate’s desire for new leadership,” McLaughlin said.
“With enough resources, Bruce Blakeman can define himself to the electorate and defeat Kathy Hochul in November.”
