Political violence has 'just started,’ former FBI agent warns in 2026 outlook

A retired FBI agent has issued a stark warning that the threat of political violence is only beginning as we enter 2026.

Charlie Kirk, a well-known conservative figure and founder of Turning Point USA, became the most prominent victim of such violence in 2025 when he was tragically killed on September 10. While officials have not disclosed a specific motive, they have characterized the incident as a “political assassination,” highlighting the increasing concern over ideologically motivated attacks in the United States.

Investigators revealed that one of the bullets allegedly fired by suspect Tyler Robinson bore the engraving, “Hey fascist, catch.” This detail has sparked a broader discussion about the potential for political rhetoric to incite real-world violence.

The warning signs of rising political violence are not subtle. According to a report from the Department of Homeland Security, 2025 saw an alarming increase of over 1,150% in assaults and violent acts against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers compared to the previous year under the Biden administration.

Thomas Matthew Crooks

In another incident, Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, attempted to assassinate former President Donald Trump during a campaign rally in 2024. Crooks was ultimately shot and killed by Secret Service agents.

In late September, an attack on an ICE facility resulted in the death of one detainee and injuries to two others when a gunman opened fire. The suspect, identified as Joshua Jahn, had allegedly used apps to track ICE agents’ locations.

Officials said Jahn had a handwritten note that stated, “Hopefully this will give ICE agents real terror, to think, ‘is there a sniper with AP rounds on that roof?”

The same pattern of targeted, ideologically-driven violence also surfaced when there were two assassination attempts against now-President Donald Trump. On July 13, 2024, authorities said 20-year-old Thomas Crooks fired several shots during a Butler, Pennsylvania, rally, one of which struck Trump in the ear. Just a couple of months later, on Sept. 15, 2024, 58-year-old Ryan Routh was arrested after authorities said he was seen armed with a rifle in a sniper’s hide near the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Former FBI agent Jonathan Gilliam said Kirk’s death fits into a broader pattern that has become increasingly difficult to ignore. In an interview with Fox News Digital, he warned that political violence is being normalized.

Luigi Mangione makes facial expression in court

Luigi Mangione appears in Manhattan Supreme Court for a suppression hearing on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025. (Curtis Means for Daily Mail via Pool)

“I think there are signs that this type of violence is being normalized,” Gilliam said. “When you look at, for instance, Luigi Mangione in the assassination of an insurance CEO, what you’ve seen is that a large part of the population was somewhat OK with that and have made him into somewhat of a hero.”

Gilliam said he’s concerned that some Americans’ tolerance for political and ideological violence has only expanded in recent years.

“When they go out, and they commit acts of violence, but not killing, people start to ask the question, ‘Is that justified?’ And then, when it gets more and more violent, there will be less people, but actually still a great vast majority of those people that have been convinced will agree and justify the violence,” Gilliam said.

License photo of alleged Dallas ICE Shooter Joshua Jahn

Joshua Jahn, 29, is the man who opened fire on an ICE facility in Dallas, Texas, authorities said. (Contributed to Fox News)

Gilliam warned he thinks the U.S. hasn’t witnessed the peak of political violence, but it will only get worse.

“I believe that political violence, as we know it now, has just started,” Gilliam said. “So when we look now at the political violence that’s happening, we’re also seeing much more violent behavior, very targeted behavior. It’s violence and killing against different Jewish groups, against Christians, against people who are outwardly trying to have dialogue. And so rather than support that dialogue, what we have seen is political violence to shut that violence down or that dialogue down.”

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