An alleged insider in the prediction market realm of Polymarket has reportedly amassed $2.14 million by accurately wagering on a U.S. military operation against Iran. Experts, however, suggest that this individual isn’t doing much to hide their actions.
A single trader, operating through 38 distinct accounts, managed to achieve a near-perfect success rate by forecasting undisclosed U.S. military moves, according to a blockchain forensics professional and experienced trader who spoke with The Post.
Blockchain analysis reveals that all winnings from these accounts ultimately converged back to a single deposit address on the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. This analysis, part of a public ledger system, tracks cryptocurrency transactions between users while keeping their identities hidden.
The trader’s methods appeared surprisingly “amateurish,” suggesting a lack of concern about being detected, according to the expert.
“It’s as if they asked a child to set this up,” remarked the source after tracing the digital transactions.
Speculation about military leaks has intensified due to a series of well-timed bets across various platforms benefitting from undisclosed information about Iran. However, the expert doubts that such leaks are the root of the issue.
“I’d say it’s someone outside of government or someone not familiar with the fact that sending to the same address is the biggest red flag possible.
“If I had to guess, it’s someone not familiar enough with crypto to know that. In my experience, government and military guys know better,” the expert said.
Polymarket’s prediction betting operates offshore from the US and its legal status is complex. A front-facing US operation set to roll out this year has experienced delays.
The service operates as a market — like the US stock exchange — rather than as a traditional gambling operation like a casino. People place money on the future outcome of events, and others place wagers on the opposite outcome. The winner takes the amount staked by those who lose.
The Iran wagers from the mystery account began on Feb. 22, when two accounts — one identified by a Bitcoin wallet address and another under the username Flipfloppity — withdrew a combined $176,000 to the same Coinbase deposit address.
That same day 10 additional accounts were created and funded primarily through the financial services app Robinhood or Coinbase transfers.
Between Feb. 22 and 27, these accounts bet “no” on a US strike on Iran; on Feb. 28 — the day of the first reported strike — they switched to “yes.”
A second wave of 22 accounts was opened on Feb. 24, followed by four more through Feb. 27, each exhibiting identical betting patterns of six to 11 consecutive winning wagers on military outcomes.
The account Flipfloppity also had tremendous success betting on the surprise US strike against Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3.
The account pocketed $232,000, including a large win on the “Maduro Out” market with an $89,000 bet and $258,000 payout and a related “US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15” wager — a $9,000 bet with a $54,000 payout.
Neither military operation was reported or known about outside of national defense circles beforehand and neither Polymarket nor the US Department of War responded to The Post’s requests for comment.
Meanwhile, in another eyebrow-raising case, before President Donald Trump announced on Monday “very good and productive conversations” regarding an end to the war with Iran, 10 brand new Polymarket accounts had wagered a combined $160,000 on an “US x Iran ceasefire,” betting it would happen by March 31 or April 15. They stand to gain over $1 million collectively if the war comes to a halt by the end of the month.
Identified by X user Lirrato, one of the accounts that goes by the Polymarket handle NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS was opened in late February and pocketed over $85,000 in its first two bets — wagering $7,600 that the US would strike Iran by Feb. 28 and $11,283 on a strike by March 1.
That account does not appear to be related to others engaging in suspicious trades.
“Crypto betting in any form draws the most degenerate people. They’ll throw $250,000 on a bet like it’s nothing, so there’s always that rare chance that someone got lucky,” the blockchain expert added.
Over on the actual stock market, a flurry of stock and oil trades were placed early Monday by Wall Street traders, resulting in a windfall likely worth between $40 million and $50 million, according to an earlier Post report.
The trades were made about 10 minutes before 7 a.m. ET on Monday – normally a lull in the markets, and will likely spark an investigation from regulators, sources said.
Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) was among critics who slammed the trade as an indication of “mind-blowing corruption.”
On Monday, Polymarket announced updated rules designed to ban insider trading and market manipulation that prohibits trading on stolen confidential information or illegal tips and trading by those who can influence outcomes.
“I don’t see how [enforcement] is possible,” said the expert. “In fact, it’s completely impossible.”
