Uncharacteristically, Elon Musk is doing a dumb thing.
This weekend, his threat to create a third national party due to his disappointment in President Donald Trump’s inability to eradicate the deficit might spell disaster — both for him and for the nation.
To be sure, it’s risky to bet against Elon.
He’s an extraordinary talent, rare in this millennium, excelling in engineering, business, and even politics. While Leonardo da Vinci possessed similar all-encompassing abilities, how many of his innovations were actually brought to life?
Musk has proven politically astute enough to recognize that a Democratic victory in 2024 could jeopardize his enterprises, his vision for humanity, and potentially the future of the United States.
He went all-in with his money and his fame to help prevent that calamity, for which he deserves our gratitude.
But.
Musk’s disappointment that Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act doesn’t cut enough spending has him flirting with the idea of creating the independent “America Party.”
And that’s pure foolishness.
Third parties in America have pretty much always been failures, and ruinous for those looking to rein in government.
Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose Party handed the White House to Democrat Woodrow Wilson, with disastrous results. Ross Perot’s on-again-off-again campaign — like Musk’s, focused on the national debt — ushered in Bill Clinton.
Musk’s effort is likely to do the same, splitting the votes of Americans who want reform in Washington.
And it runs the risk of losing the midterms to the Democrats, which will guarantee no action on spending cuts, likely followed by a White House loss for the GOP in 2028.
Elon and his fans are right that the debt is an existential threat.
But we can’t attack it without first taking apart the coalitions that created the problem. That’s what Trump is doing.
The old establishment GOP of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan is gone. The new MAGA party has only a slim majority in Congress — but it was enough to pass Trump’s budget bill last week.
And while the OBBBA doesn’t directly slash the debt, it contains several provisions making it easier to do so.
Capping federal student loans will force university tuitions down, which will both cut federal spending and throttle the cash that higher education — a money laundry and employment farm for Democrats — has to play politics with.
Massive deportations will decrease the illegal population in time for the 2030 census, costing Democratic states seats in the House and helping to cement a GOP majority, while improving the lives of working-class Americans and boosting tax receipts.
Even Trump’s much-maligned tariffs are returning more revenue than predicted, further reducing future deficits. His policies are already spurring faster economic growth, which (see: Argentina) will help, too.
Musk wanted more cuts, and I too would have been happy to get them.
But as a technology guy, he must know that major advances require first developing the tools needed to do what you want to do.
Politics isn’t all that different, really.
A bigger majority in the House and Senate will free the GOP to go after spending more aggressively.
With the Republicans’ current razor-thin majorities, passing the OBBBA at all was something of a miracle.
And yes, it required them to buy crucial votes with provisions that are basically pork. That’s how Congress works, especially with a narrow majority.
Add 20 or 30 seats in the House, and even as few as two or three in the Senate, and serious change will be much, much easier.
There’s another cost to Musk’s involvement in politics, given his stature as a once-in-a-millennium talent.
As someone who’s long backed his space-exploration goals — I was policy chair for the National Space Society when many of the legal changes that made companies like SpaceX feasible were put into place — I believe his support for human settlement of the solar system should be his primary focus.
That’s the place where Musk is literally irreplaceable.
Putting down your tools to pick up a hose when the house is on fire makes sense, even if you’re Leonardo da Vinci.
But once the fire’s out, it’s best to let someone else rebuild the house while you focus on your true calling.
Others can hammer a roof together. No one else can paint the Mona Lisa or the Last Supper.
I think Musk has enjoyed his political work, which brought him unaccustomed adulation and a break from his grueling routine.
But when you have a vocation that matches your unique talents, it’s best to focus on that. (Look at Elvis Presley, who wasted many years on acting — at which he was not uniquely talented).
Take a vacation from politics, Elon. We desperately need you elsewhere.
Glenn Harlan Reynolds is a professor of law at the University of Tennessee and founder of the InstaPundit.com blog.
