The situation over Venezuelan skies is becoming increasingly tense. On Friday, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a warning for pilots navigating near or within Venezuelan airspace. This advisory comes amid a significant uptick in military activities and a deteriorating security environment in the area.

Concerns naturally arise about the potential dangers for aircraft in this region. While the Venezuelan military poses the most direct threat, the idea of drug cartels possessing sophisticated military hardware like jet interceptors and anti-aircraft systems remains far-fetched. Meanwhile, U.S. forces, known for their precision in targeting, have been actively engaged in efforts to curb drug trafficking, primarily by targeting smuggling operations at sea.

So, what exactly is unfolding in this situation?

Reports indicate that Venezuela’s air force, officially known as the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Military Aviation, comprises 21 Russian-built Sukhoi SU-30MK2 fighters and a few aging F-16A/B Falcons. The latter are reportedly in poor condition, raising doubts about their operational readiness. In the hypothetical scenario where the U.S. deploys advanced fighters like the F-22, F-35, or F-15 to the region, the Venezuelan fleet, even at full capacity, would be significantly outmatched in a matter of minutes.

One wonders just what kinds of risks aircraft operating in that airspace may encounter. Any hostile acts would have to come from the Venezuelan military, unless the cartels are now operating jet interceptors and anti-aircraft weaponry, which doesn’t seem likely. And American forces, who we know have been busy detonating drug-smuggling speedboats, generally are pretty good about identifying their targets.

So what may be going on?

“Since early September, Venezuela has conducted multiple military exercises and directed the mass mobilization of thousands of military and reserve forces,” the FAA wrote in a background information document accompanying the advisory. “While Venezuela has at no point expressed an intent to target civil aviation, the Venezuelan military possesses advanced fighter aircraft and multiple weapons systems capable of reaching or exceeding civil aircraft operating altitudes, as well as potential low-altitude risk from man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and anti-aircraft artillery.”

The FAA also noted that some civil aircraft recently reported navigation system interference while traveling in the region “which, in some cases, caused lingering effects throughout the flight.”

Venezuela’s air force, the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Military Aviation, has at last report, 21 Russian Sukhoi SU-30MK2 fighters, and three F-16A/B Falcons in dubious condition – meaning they may be barely flyable junk. Were the United States to move south in force with F-22, F-35, or F-15 air superiority fighters, the Venezuelan air force, if they took off and entered the battle en masse, would last approximately six minutes.