The last time U.S. President Donald Trump visited Canada for a Group of Seven summit, the unforgettable scene was of him sitting with arms crossed defiantly as Angela Merkel, then the German Chancellor, glared at him intensely.
This year’s G7 summit, commencing Monday in Canada’s Rocky Mountains, seems to have a common agenda: to avoid any dramatic disagreements at a time of high tensions.
The 2018 summit closed with Trump criticizing his Canadian hosts on social media during his departure on Air Force One, announcing that he had directed U.S. officials in Quebec to reject the G7 joint statement, which had been approved by leaders from Japan, France, the U.K., Italy, Germany, and Canada.
“I have instructed our U.S. Reps not to endorse the Communique as we look at Tariffs on automobiles flooding the U.S. Market!” Trump posted on the site then known as Twitter.
This time, Trump already has hit several dozen nations with severe tariffs that risk a global economic slowdown. There is little progress on settling the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and now a new and escalating conflict between Israel and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Add to all of that the problems of climate change, immigration, drug trafficking, new technologies such as artificial intelligence and China’s continued manufacturing superiority and chokehold on key supply chains.
Asked if he planned to announce any trade agreements at the G7 as he left the White House on Sunday, Trump said: “We have our trade deals. All we have to do is send a letter, ‘This is what you’re going to have to pay.’ But I think we’ll have a few, few new trade deals.”
At stake might be the survival of the G7 itself at a time when the Trump administration has sent mixed signals about whether the president will attend the November Group of 20 summit in South Africa.
What Trump opposed at the 2018 summit in Quebec wasn’t just tariffs, but a focus on having alliances with a shared set of standards seeking to shape policies.
“The big dispute in Quebec were the references to the rules-based international order and that’s where that famous photo comes from,” said Peter Boehm, Canada’s counselor at the 2018 G7 summit in Quebec and a veteran of six G7 summits. “I think it gave everyone the idea that G7s were maybe not business as usual.”
The German, U.K., Japanese and Italian governments have each signaled a belief that a friendly relationship with Trump this year can reduce the likelihood of outbursts.
“Well, I have got a good relationship with President Trump, and that’s important,” U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Saturday as he flew to Canada.
There is no plan for a joint statement this year from the G7, a sign that the Trump administration sees no need to build a shared consensus with fellow democracies if it views such a statement as contrary to its goals of new tariffs, more fossil fuel production and a Europe that is less dependent on the U.S. military.
“The Trump administration almost certainly believes that no deal is better than a bad deal,” said Caitlin Welsh, a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank who was part of Trump’s team for the G7 in Trump’s first term.
The White House has stayed decidedly mum about its goals for the G7, which originated as a 1973 finance ministers’ meeting to address the oil crisis and steadily evolved into a yearly summit that is meant to foster personal relationships among world leaders and address global problems.
The G7 even briefly expanded to the G8 with Russia as a member, only for Russia to be expelled in 2014 after annexing Crimea and taking a foothold in Ukraine that preceded its aggressive 2022 invasion of that nation.
Trump will have at least three scheduled bilateral meetings during the summit with other world leaders while in Canada, staring on Monday morning with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. The U.S. president is also expected to have bilateral meetings with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to an administration official.
The U.S. president has imposed 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, all of which have disproportionately hit Japan. Trump is also charging a 10% tax on imports from most countries, though he could raise rates on July 9, after the 90-day negotiating period set by him would expire.
The United Kingdom reached a trade framework with the U.S. that included quotas to protect against some tariffs, but the 10% baseline would remain as the Trump administration is banking on tariff revenues to help cover the cost of its income tax cuts.
Canada and Mexico face separate tariffs of as much as 25% that Trump put into place under the auspices of stopping fentanyl smuggling, through some products are still protected under the 2020 U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed during Trump’s first term.
The Trump administration has insisted that its broad tariffs will produce trade agreements that box out China, though it’s unclear how antagonizing trade partners would make them want to strengthen their reliance on the U.S. Carney, the Canadian leader, has been outspoken in saying his country can no longer look to the U.S. as an enduring friend.
That might leave Trump with the awkward task of wanting to keep his tariffs in place while also trying to convince other countries that they’re better off siding with the U.S. than China.
“Trump will try to coordinate the group against China’s economic coercion,” Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, wrote in an analysis. “But the rest of the leaders may turn back to Trump and say that this kind of coordination, which is at the heart of why the G7 works, would be easier if he weren’t imposing tariffs on his allies.”
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