Giorgia Meloni’s Trump Clash Is a Calculated Popularity Play, Expert Says

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s widening clash with President Donald Trump is being driven less by diplomacy than by domestic political calculation, a prominent Italian analyst told News Agency on Sunday.

As tensions between Trump and Meloni grew sharper on June 20, analysts suggested the Italian premier may believe she has little to lose by pushing back against the U.S. president, especially with her approval ratings slipping ahead of Italy’s 2027 general election.

The dispute appeared to reach a critical point after Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on June 19 that he was canceling a planned visit to Washington, where he had been due to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“Giorgia Meloni must have calculated that a public row with Trump yields no tangible consequences, other than an increase in her domestic and international standing,” said Mattia Diletti, a political science lecturer at Sapienza University of Rome.

Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Rome’s Luiss University, offered a similar assessment to the Financial Times, saying the standoff could ultimately project a “positive image” for Meloni and provide a “silver lining” in a confrontation she had “desperately tried to avoid.”

The row deepened after Trump, speaking in an interview aired by Italy’s La7 television network, claimed Meloni had asked him for a photograph during the G7 summit and said he agreed only because he felt sorry for her.

“She begged me to take a picture with her,” Trump said. “She wanted a picture with me so badly. I wouldn’t have taken it, but I felt sorry for her.”

Meloni fired back, releasing a video statement on X rejecting the president’s narrative.

“I am frankly stunned,” Meloni said in the video message. “I don’t know why the president of the United States behaves this way toward his own allies. But there’s one thing he must remember: Neither I nor Italy ever beg.”

Trump doubled down on Truth Social and tied the row directly to Meloni’s political fortunes.

“Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni asked, over and over, for a picture with me during the G7 meeting in France,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“She is doing poorly in Italy with her level of popularity, possibly because she turned down the United States of America… when it came to denying Iran from obtaining or developing a nuclear weapon … She wouldn’t even let us use Italy’s landing strips or runways, a great logistical inconvenience … Now, after the United States defeated Iran militarily, she wants to be friends again in order to get her ‘numbers up.’ No thanks!!!”

Within hours, Meloni responded on social media: “As for my popularity, being your friend certainly has not helped it … My popularity depends on my ability to defend Italy’s national interest… In any case, my popularity is none of your concern. I suggest you focus on yours.”

The back-and-forth marks a reversal for two leaders who once enjoyed a close political alignment.

When Meloni first came to power, she positioned herself as a bridge between Washington and Brussels while pushing ties with Trump based on shared nationalism and stances on immigration.

“Politically, Trump has favored Meloni,” Diletti noted, pointing out that she had previously visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in 2025. She was the only European Union leader to attend his second inauguration.

The cracks also appeared in April when Trump criticized Meloni for siding with Pope Leo XIV’s condemnation of the U.S. conflict with Iran.

On Sunday, Trump also criticized Italy and Giorgia Meloni over their approach to Iran, accusing the NATO ally of failing to help confront Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

“As the 2027 Italian general election approaches, Meloni is facing a decline in approval ratings for the first time,” Diletti explained.

“The opportunity to counter a President so unpopular in Europe and Italy helps bolster her approval ratings and allows her to build European solidarity,” he claimed.