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Last night’s election results, both in special elections and in the primaries, were an absolutely damning indictment of the Democrat Party. As my colleague Cameron Arcand reported, Texas’ 34th District, which had a D+14 result in the House in 2020, elected Republican Mayra Flores without even having to go to a runoff.
That was the big story of the night because it represented a sea change in the Rio Grande Valley, with TX34 having voted a Democrat into the House for the last one hundred years until Tuesday night. Further, things weren’t even close, with Flores defeating Democrat Dan Sanchez by seven points.
Sean Trende shared some internals showing just how shocking the result was.
I mean, Cameron County 50-50 with half the vote counted? Obama beat Romney here by 30 points. He won Willacy County by 40 (which is also tied right now). I mean later votes will probably shift things but the fact that this is even close in a congressional race . . .
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) June 15, 2022
Looking at the bigger picture, I think the identity-based hope of Democrats that they could still garner a permanent majority because of Hispanic population growth blew up on Tuesday night. With the black population stagnant (largely due to left-wing support of abortion), Democrats have, for decades, insisted that increased Hispanic immigration would fulfill their “demographics as destiny” dreams. They wrote books about it, made countless cable news hits asserting it, and drew districts to ensure they packed in Hispanic voters in order to deliver Democrat victories.
That strategy is now a complete failure, and pretty soon, you could be seeing Republicans winning a majority of the Hispanic vote in presidential elections. That’s how big the shift was, not just last night, but over the last year. Who could have guessed that lumping Hispanics into a vague victim group, calling them “Latinx,” and instituting policies that destroy their livelihoods wouldn’t earn their support?
Democrats miscalculated by trying to treat Hispanics the same as black voters. Neither demographic is a singular demographic. The experiences, cultures, and priorities of Hispanics, for instance, vary wildly depending on their family history. Democrats wanted to treat them all like children who support illegal immigration (they don’t) and that care more about social justice issues than inflation. That was a huge mistake, and it’s one that can’t be undone.
The damage is done for Democrats as they appear more and more out of touch with Hispanic voters who tend to lean more socially and economically conservative. The Mitt Romneys of the world, i.e. those that so alienated Hispanics, are irrelevant in the GOP now. Further, lots of Hispanics are being nominated as candidates in Republican primaries. The ball is rolling downhill now, and it only picks up more speed from here.
And while Democrats might technically be able to regain ground, there’s nothing that leads me to believe they will make the necessary cultural, rhetorical, and economic changes to do so. Is Nancy Pelosi going to stop using the word “Latinx?” Is Joe Biden going to stop crushing the oil industry, which is a huge job provider for Hispanics? Of course, they aren’t. They are so married to their radical base that they are going to go down in flames, not even attempting to change course.
Republicans should send them a thank-you letter.