In a recent report released on Friday, new findings indicate that President Trump’s immigration policies could lead to a significant reduction in the U.S. workforce. Over the next decade, these policies are expected to shrink the labor pool by 15 million individuals.
The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) detailed in their analysis that the administration’s stance on both legal and illegal immigration would result in a decrease of 6.8 million workers by 2028, and a total shortfall of 15.7 million by 2035. This reduction is anticipated to slow the annual economic growth rate by nearly a third, potentially impacting the standard of living in the United States negatively.
According to the NFAP, these immigration policies could also significantly increase the federal debt by approximately $1.74 trillion, while the gross domestic product (GDP) might see a reduction of $12.1 trillion over the next decade.
The report highlights several policy changes, including cuts to refugee admissions, the implementation of a travel ban in 2025, the termination of Temporary Protected Status, and restrictions on humanitarian parole programs. Additionally, the policies could curtail opportunities for international students to work in the U.S. under Optional Practical Training and STEM OPT programs post-graduation. Other adjustments, such as the anticipated public charge rule, are likely to further limit legal immigration.
Researchers also noted that the analysis does not account for the probable economic consequences of restricting U.S. companies’ access to highly skilled foreign professionals through regulatory and administrative changes, which could impede growth in productivity.
The Hill has reached out to the White House for their response to these findings.
The Trump administration has set a goal of removing at least 1 million immigrants in the country illegally per year. The Labor Department recently warned that the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts could drive up food prices due to a dwindling workforce in the agriculture industry.
Taxpayer funds are currently being used to bolster border and immigration enforcement, including the White House’s $45 billion investment to increase Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention capacity.
The NFAP said as expenditures rise, so will the country’s debt.
“Increasing the federal debt will reduce living standards in the United States by leading to higher levels of taxation, inflation and interest rates than without such debt,” researchers wrote.
“Labor force growth is a crucial part of the economic growth that advances a country’s living standards and facilitates the financing of existing debts and obligations. With the U.S.-born population aging and growing at a slower rate, immigrants have become an essential part of American labor force growth,” they added.
