Iran’s President Blames Foreign Pressure as Experts Warn Economy Is Near Breaking Point

Allegations that some Iranians are resorting to stealing bread, cheese, meat and other everyday food staples are intensifying fears that the country’s deepening economic crisis is pushing many families closer to the edge.

A report published Wednesday by the Iranian newspaper Jahan-e Sanat detailed accounts from supermarket employees who said they had seen shoppers hide low-cost grocery items or consume packaged foods inside stores without paying. While the examples are anecdotal and do not show how widespread food theft may be across Iran, analysts say they mirror broader economic distress driven by soaring inflation, a weakening currency and a steep decline in household purchasing power.

“These are anecdotal, but they align with hard data,” Miad Maleki, an associate fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told News Outlet.

“Iran is already inside the tipping zone,” Maleki said. “But a genuine ‘tipping point’ wouldn’t be a single dramatic event. It would look like what’s already unfolding in slow motion: currency collapse, World War II-level food inflation and now theft of staples, reaching a threshold where basic caloric/nutritional access breaks down for a large share of the population, not just the poorest.”

The accounts emerged as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly conceded that the country is dealing with “difficulties and problems,” even as he used a televised address Wednesday to portray Iran as strong and internationally respected.

“The enemy is exerting pressure in an attempt to provoke the people into protesting,” Pezeshkian said, according to an account of his Aug. 5 address published by Iran’s state-affiliated Press TV.

Maleki warned that worsening food insecurity in Iran could fuel another wave of public unrest, citing the November 2019 protests that erupted after the government sharply raised gasoline prices.

“The regime’s own history proves it, because its most dangerous moments have been economic, not ideological,” Maleki said.

He cautioned, however, that economic desperation would not necessarily produce immediate political change. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij paramilitary forces have repeatedly demonstrated their willingness to suppress unrest rather than make significant economic concessions, he said.

A supermarket employee identified only as Amirhossein told Jahan-e Sanat that he had witnessed several suspected thefts during the previous 10 months. The employee described customers allegedly taking cheese, butter, cakes, pastries and meat, according to Iran International’s account of the newspaper investigation.

“I think poverty is the main reason,” the employee told the newspaper. “You cannot judge everyone the same way, but when someone steals a simple item, they are probably under enormous pressure.”

Maleki, a former Treasury Department sanctions official, said Iran’s annual food inflation reached between 112.5% and 113.8% in March 2026, with the prices of bread and cereals rising 140% and dairy products and eggs increasing 116.8%.

The Statistical Center of Iran data cited in separate reports showed point-to-point inflation of 113.8% for food and beverages and 112.5% for food items in March compared with the same month a year earlier. Bread and cereal prices increased 140%, while milk, cheese and egg prices rose 116.8%.

“While a single newspaper’s petty-crime roundup isn’t proof of imminent collapse, it’s a credible symptom layered on top of verified macro data,” Maleki said. “And when or if this conflict ends and market demand is not suppressed by a state of war, inflation will skyrocket even higher.”

Maleki said Iran’s currency crisis has intensified the pressure on households. The U.S. dollar reached approximately 1.5 million rials in January before surpassing 1.94 million rials on Iran’s open market in July amid renewed regional conflict.

The government’s response, Maleki said, has included issuing monthly cash credits worth approximately $7 at the open-market exchange rate after eliminating subsidized exchange rates for certain imports. He argued that removing those subsidies contributed to further price increases.

The critical threshold, he added, would come when access to basic nutrition deteriorates not only among Iran’s poorest citizens but across a large portion of the population.

The supermarket accounts do not prove that the Iranian government is on the verge of collapse. Maleki argues, however, that they provide an increasingly visible sign that the country’s economic crisis is affecting Iranians’ ability to afford basic necessities.