Escalating jet fuel prices are becoming a formidable obstacle for the global travel sector, particularly as the World Cup approaches, sparking worries about increased airfare, diminished international travel demand, and declining booking trends for short-term accommodations in the 11 U.S. host cities and neighboring areas.
Since the onset of the Iran conflict, jet fuel prices have nearly doubled. In response, some airlines are transferring these rising operational expenses to consumers, prompting travelers to possibly choose destinations more carefully or opt for shorter trips as the cost of long-haul flights climbs.
This situation could put pressure on both international visitor numbers and the short-term rental market, which typically thrives on boosts from event-driven tourism, just as demand was anticipated to rise.
Mahmood A. Khan, a professor specializing in Hospitality and Tourism Management at Pamplin College of Business, Virginia Tech, shared with Realtor.com® that he anticipates airfare increases due to the Iran conflict and surging fuel costs.
“People might prefer vacation spots closer to home to minimize expenses,” he explains.
Although Khan believes that die-hard World Cup enthusiasts are unlikely to cancel their travel plans, he suggests that many might opt for shorter stays to manage expenses.
According to Tourism Economics, the World Cup is expected to bring around 1.24 million international visitors to the U.S. during the tournament period, which runs from June 11 to July 19.
Geopolitical tensions add to travel uncertainty
Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, tells Realtor.com, “The World Cup 2026 is a large-scale event touching 11 major markets in the U.S. It’s a noisy, uncertain period building up to the event, and traveler concerns and negative sentiment raise the stakes. The Middle East conflict ramps up some of the sentiment effects, underscoring preexisting concerns for some.”
Ryan continues, “The Middle East conflict risks extending last year’s 5.5% decline in U.S. inbound arrivals to this year, adding elevated fuel costs, air travel disruption, and pressure on discretionary spending to a mix of already challenging sentiment toward the U.S. An extended conflict would sustain negative headwinds and could contribute to a second year of declining U.S. inbound visits.”
Anna Marie Presutti, the chief executive of the San Francisco Travel Association, told The New York Times she thought that travel demand in San Francisco hasn’t yet risen to its full potential because the war in Iran is complicating travel for fans from Jordan and Qatar, two teams that are playing there.
Citizens from several countries face U.S. entry restrictions under policies introduced during the Trump administration, while some African nations are subject to stricter visa requirements, including pilot programs that have required certain travelers to post bonds of up to $15,000.
Even so, Ryan says he remains confident the World Cup will bring incremental visitors to the U.S. and boost hotel and short-term rental performance, as many fans are still going to find a way to see matches in person.
Mixed outlook for hotels and short-term rentals
But Vijay Dandapani, president of the Hotel Association of New York City, says a combination of pressures is already causing some travelers to scale back spending. He cites expensive match tickets, rising airfare, inflation concerns linked to the conflict in Iran, visa-related challenges, and added friction in the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ETSA) process for visa-waiver travelers.
“One-off events like FIFA are never the cornucopia promised,” he says. “FIFA has estimated 1.2 million visitors to New York City—a number that is highly unlikely to come to pass.”
Bram Gallagher, director of economics and forecasting at AirDNA—a firm that compiles and analyzes Vrbo and Airbnb data, tells Realtor.com that short-term rental demand has remained relatively resilient so far.
“We haven’t noticed any big downward trends in short-term rental bookings for the World Cup. In fact, it seems like we’re doing a little bit better than hotels in this regard,” he says, adding that Miami demand is up 57%.
Airbnb tells Realtor.com that host earnings are projected to total nearly $156 million for the event.
Airbnb hosts in World Cup cities are projected to earn approximately $4,000, or $262 per night, on average during the tournament, according to a recent Deloitte analysis.
But Brad Greiner, founder of Open Air Homes, which manages about 70 short-term rentals in Southern California, tells Realtor.com, “We are definitely concerned about rising costs of oil and how it will affect travel.”
He says that, so far, Los Angeles has had lower demand in general for the World Cup than he was expecting. “I am confident our homes will book, but as the games approach, if economic uncertainty remains high, along with high ticket pricing, higher travel costs, and just inflation in general, we have a plan in place to slowly bring down our rates to ensure high occupancy,” he says.
Scott Yesner, founder of the short-term rental management company Bespoke Stay, says some operators are already feeling pressure after pricing aggressively.
“For some operators, there is absolutely panic setting in—and that’s understandable,” he tells Realtor.com. “Those are the properties that got ahead of themselves, pricing as if the World Cup was going to be a Pope visit or Taylor Swift-level event where you could truly name your price. When the bookings didn’t materialize at those rates, panic was probably inevitable.”
Yesner says he doesn’t think the war itself is what’s keeping people away. “A true soccer fan, someone who has been dreaming about attending a World Cup for years, is not going to let a geopolitical conflict on the other side of the world stop them from getting on a plane,” he says.
However, he acknowledges that uncertainty—particularly around air routes and visas—is having a real impact on planning.
“You’ve got airspace closures over major Gulf hubs … visa complications … and ultimately a lot of uncertainty,” he says. “That uncertainty is paralyzing for trip planning, even for motivated fans.”
Outlook still fluid ahead of tournament
Gallagher adds that the situation in Iran remains volatile, with many travelers delaying decisions in hopes of improved conditions.
“It’s only been maybe 50 days of this,” he says. “People have been deferring making big changes to their plans on the hopes that we’ll have a swift resolution.”
Gallagher notes that while there have been numerous short-term rental cancellations in the Middle East due to the conflict, AirDNA has not seen a comparable trend in the United States.
“Knock on wood, there’s a lot of promise with this recent ceasefire, so we’ll see,” he says.
