The first-round leader (FRL) market is one of the best values in all of sports betting, and there’s no tournament more fitting for FRL bettors than the Open Championship.
The wind, rain, and distinctive courses turn the British Open into a whirlwind of unpredictability, and when you narrow it down to just 18 holes, the playing field becomes even more level, which can result in unexpected names leading after Round 1.
Just look at the players who paced the field after 18 holes at the last five iterations of the Open:
- 2019: JB Holmes
- 2021: Louis Oosthuizen
- 2022: Cameron Young
- 2023: Emiliano Grillo, Tommy Fleetwood, Christo Lamprecht (who finished plus-11 for the tournament)
- 2024: Daniel Brown
As those names suggest, this is not the place – or the market – where you want to be spending your bankroll on players at the top of the board.
Instead, it behooves you to take some shots and sprinkle some sleepers being offered at big prices.
2025 Open Championship First-Round Leader picks
Marco Penge 80/1 (FanDuel)
Although not a household name on this side of the Pond, Marco Penge is starting to rack up impressive results on the DP World Tour.
The Englishman clinched the Hainan Classic at the end of April, secured T11 at the BMW International Open two weeks ago, and was a runner-up (alongside Rory McIlroy) at the Scottish Open last week.
Penge is someone to consider across all markets, but we’ll back him to get off the blocks hot Thursday.
Lucas Glover 140/1 (bet365)
There’s no right or wrong way to handicap the first-round leader market. It’s nearly impossible to predict.
But it doesn’t hurt that Lucas Glover is coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Travelers Championship and John Deere Classic.
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Padraig Harrington 500/1 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Glover has plenty of experience in this event, so he shouldn’t be overwhelmed by whatever Royal Portrush throws at him this weekend.
A two-time Open Champion, Padraig Harrington is well past his prime. That said, the Irishman still has it in his locker to go low for 18 holes in conditions that will be to his liking.
The 53-year-old should come into the week buoyed with confidence after winning the U.S. Senior Open at the end of June, and he made the cut at last week’s Scottish Open.
Lee Westwood 500/1 (DraftKings)
Like Harrington, Lee Westwood is into his 50s and well beyond his prime. However, the 52-year-old Englishman is playing some decent stuff on LIV and he finished T4 at Royal Portrush back in 2019.
That’s enough to get me in at this price.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
