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(The Hill) – Former President Trump has an early edge over President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, according to a new Emerson College poll.
The national survey shows Trump leading Biden 44 percent to 39 percent in a head-to-head matchup, while another 12 percent of voters say they plan to vote for someone else.
Trump’s support has held firm since May, when the same poll found him notching 44 percent support in a 2024 race against Biden. But Biden’s support has waned, somewhat, since then, dropping from 42 percent in May to 39 percent in late June.
Of course, whether a rematch of the 2020 presidential race materializes in 2024 remains an open question.
While Biden has said that he plans to seek a second term in the White House, some Democrats have begun questioning whether he should actually do so.
Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly hinted at a potential 2024 run, though he hasn’t yet committed himself to another campaign and some Republicans remain skeptical that he will actually move forward with a comeback bid.
If he does ultimately decide to run, however, Trump would be the early favorite to win the GOP presidential nod. Fifty-five percent of voters say they would support Trump in the 2024 Republican primary, while 20 percent would back Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a rising star within the party who has been floated as a potential presidential contender.
No other Republican scores double-digit support in a hypothetical primary matchup. Former Vice President Mike Pence notches 9 percent, while every other prospective candidate in the poll fails to clear even 5 percent support.
On the Democratic side, 64 percent of voters say that Biden should be the party’s 2024 nominee, while 36 percent say he should not be.
Of course, the first primaries and caucuses of the 2024 election cycle are still a year-and-a-half away, and few Democrats have positioned themselves for potential White House runs in the way that several Republicans have.
The Emerson College national poll surveyed 1,271 registered voters nationwide from June 28-29. It has a credibility interval – similar to a margin of error – of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.