Uncertainty surrounds the timeline and implementation of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran, aimed at concluding the ongoing conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
CAIRO, Egypt — A significant breakthrough seems to be on the horizon as the United States and Iran edge closer to a deal that could bring an end to the war. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the negotiations were “largely completed.”
Despite this announcement, details regarding the finalization and enactment of the agreement remain unclear. President Trump’s comments followed discussions with Middle Eastern allies, including a distinct conversation with Israel. These insights were provided by two regional officials and a U.S. official under the condition of anonymity, given the sensitivity of the ongoing negotiations.
Here’s a breakdown of what is currently understood regarding the deal:
In the 12 weeks following the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which led to the deaths of high-ranking officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has consistently demanded that any agreement must include a comprehensive ceasefire across all battlefronts. This includes Lebanon, where the Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been engaged in conflict with Israel since the early days of the war.
The war would end
Since April 7, a delicate ceasefire has been in place. The cessation of hostilities would alleviate tensions across the region, which has witnessed Gulf states and key travel hubs, such as the United Arab Emirates, coming under attack from Iranian missiles and drones. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would enable the resumption of global shipping, allowing approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply to move freely once more. Additionally, this would pave the way for the reconstruction of energy and other critical infrastructures in the region.
A fragile ceasefire has held since April 7. An end to the war would ease concerns throughout a region that saw Gulf havens and travel hubs like the United Arab Emirates struck by Iranian missiles and drones. It would allow for global shipping, including an estimated 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, to begin flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again. It would also allow the rebuilding of energy and other infrastructure in the region.
Both regional officials said the draft deal includes an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as a commitment to not interfere in the domestic affairs of countries in the region, including Iran. That’s a critical reference to Iran’s support for proxies, which also include the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza and Shiite armed groups in Iraq.
The U.S. wants Israel to have a free hand to respond to what it views as threats in Lebanon while Iran rejects it, one regional official said. The U.S. official said the deal would guarantee Israel’s right to act against imminent threats in self-defense.
The Strait of Hormuz would reopen gradually
Iran’s nuclear program, missile program and support for armed proxies were the stated reasons for the U.S. and Israel attacking Iran. But Tehran’s retaliatory grip on the Strait of Hormuz quickly shot to the top of global concerns as hundreds of ships carrying oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other supplies were stranded.
Under the emerging agreement, the strait would gradually reopen in parallel with the U.S. ending the blockade of Iran’s ports it launched on April 17, the regional officials said. The blockade has limited Iran’s ability to ship its oil and bring in badly needed cash for its long-suffering economy.
The U.S. would allow Iran to sell its oil through sanctions waivers, said one of the officials, who has been briefed on the negotiations. Sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s billions of dollars in frozen funds would be negotiated over 60 days, the official said.
Iran would give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium
Iran’s nuclear program and international concerns over its possible pursuit of a nuclear weapon underlie all tensions, and the U.S. and Israel have considered highly complex military operations to go in and take out its highly enriched uranium.
Under the potential deal, Tehran would agree to give up that stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to the regional officials. One official, with direct knowledge of the negotiations, said how Iran would give it up would be subject to further talks over the 60-day period. Some would likely be diluted and the rest transferred to a third country, potentially Russia, the official said. Russia has offered to take it.
A U.S. official confirmed the 60-day period and said if Iran doesn’t give up its stockpile, there will be no sanctions relief.
Iran has 972 pounds of uranium that is enriched up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Iran says it has an “inalienable” right to nuclear technology while insisting its program is peaceful. On Sunday, President Masoud Pezeshkian told state TV they were ready “to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon.”
Trump on Sunday on social media said that “our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb.”
What appears to be missing
Other issues have not been mentioned in descriptions of the emerging deal, including the status of Iran’s uranium enrichment.
Another is Iran’s missile program, which Israel in particular has sought to destroy.
And while the United States and Israel entered the war with stated ambitions of seeing Iranians rise against their government after nationwide protests early in the year, any discussion of leadership change in Tehran appears to be out.
As for Iran’s past stated aims during negotiations, there appears to be no mention of any withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, or for reparations for the damage the war has caused.
Superville reported from Washington and Anna from Lowville, New York.
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