In the latest twist of the Los Angeles mayoral race, Polymarket forecasts that Nithya Raman is poised to advance to the November runoff, a development that has sparked outrage among conservative circles. This prediction comes after a shift in the vote count brought Raman within a mere 1% of her rival, Spencer Pratt.
As of Sunday morning, with approximately 78% of ballots processed, Karen Bass holds a solid lead, securing 34.8% of the votes. However, the contest for the crucial second place has become intensely competitive. Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt currently garners 27.3% of the vote, while Raman has surged to 26.2%, leaving a slender margin of 7,494 votes between them, as reported by the Associated Press.
This development has reignited debates over the notoriously sluggish vote-counting process in California. Amidst these discussions, the Trump administration, alongside federal prosecutors in the region, is examining allegations of election fraud, adding a layer of complexity to the unfolding electoral drama.
The tightening of the race marks a significant change from earlier in the week, when Pratt maintained a steady grip on second place following the primary elections held on Tuesday. Now, Polymarket’s projections suggest a dramatic shift in fortunes, with Raman’s chances of proceeding to the runoff surging to 99%, while Pratt’s prospects have dwindled to a mere 1%.
The narrowing margin comes after Pratt maintained a second-place lead for several days following Tuesday’s primary election.
Prediction market Polymarket now projects Raman has a 99% chance of advancing to the runoff, while Pratt’s chances have collapsed to just 1%.
A similar pattern has emerged on Kalshi, where Raman’s odds have surged to 97% and Pratt’s have fallen to 3%.
From as far back as May 11 to Election Night on Tuesday, the former reality TV star had more than a 75% chance to advance out of the primary, according to the betting platform Kalshi.
Election officials still have nearly 200,000 ballots left to count, the majority of which are mail ballots which tend to swing towards left-wing candidates.
Another batch is expected to drop Sunday evening. The dramatic shift in the race has also transformed the betting markets.
A bettor who placed a $100 wager on Raman earlier in the week when she was given roughly a 20% chance of advancing would have stood to win several hundred dollars if she secured a runoff spot.
Now, however, the potential payout on the same $100 bet had shrunk dramatically as traders increasingly viewed her runoff berth as all but certain.
A $100 bet on Spencer Pratt could pay out more than $1,000 if he pulls off an upset win. Even just days after Election Night, Pratt was widely viewed as the favorite to claim the second runoff spot.
Betting markets had given him a strong advantage for weeks leading up to the election, and he remained ahead as the first rounds of vote counting were reported.
Since then, however, each new batch of ballots has steadily chipped away at his lead.
The shift has accelerated over the past several days as Raman continued to gain ground with each vote update, prompting bettors to rapidly reprice the race.
The projected matchup could have major implications for the November election.
Bass has already secured enough support to advance, but a runoff against Raman would create an all-Democratic contest between two candidates with significantly different visions for the city’s future.
If Raman were to advance, it would pit two former allies — her and Bass — against each other.
The Trump administration and Los Angeles’ top federal prosecutor are pursuing several election fraud investigations with the FBI as questions swirl over California’s sluggish vote count.
First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said Friday morning that he is working with the Department of Justice “to conduct a comprehensive audit of California’s voter rolls.”
