Iran expands it ‘shadow empire’ across Middle East as Trump pulls troops from Iraq, Syria

The Trump administration is continuing its effort to pressure Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, to dismantle pro-Iran terrorist militias, even as the process faces complications.

Middle East analysts are watching developments with cautious optimism, but Baghdad signaled in late August that it does not view Sept. 30 as a firm deadline for disarming the pro-Iran groups known as the Popular Mobilization Units, or PMU, also referred to as the Popular Mobilization Forces.

Iraq’s government is trying to bring the rogue, state-linked militias under its authority by pursuing a plan to fold them into official state structures. Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Iraqi Shiite cleric who leads the Saraya al-Salam armed group, said in May that he supported integration. However, some of the most hardline militias aligned with Iran’s regime, including Kataeb Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, have said they will neither disarm nor join the state apparatus.

Qasim al-Araji, the prime minister’s security adviser, told Al Iraqiya on Aug. 23 that “Sept. 30 is the date for the international coalition to depart, not the deadline to hand over weapons.” The international coalition refers to the U.S.-led force that defeated the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria during Trump’s first term. It remains unclear why the Iraqi government appears to be softening its position on a disarmament deadline for the PMU.

Trump and Iraqi PM

President Donald Trump gestures toward Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi as they meet in the Oval Office at the White House, July 14, 2026. (Evan Vucci/Reuters)

A spokesperson for the Iraqi Embassy declined to address the conflicting signals from Baghdad or provide a timetable for dissolving the PMU or integrating its fighters into state institutions.

Only days before al-Araji’s remarks, a representative of the Iraqi government gave News Outlet a statement saying, “Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi: All political forces fully agree on moving forward with restricting weapons to state control, and work is underway on mechanisms for surrendering weapons and bringing this issue to a complete end.”

Al-Zaidi told the Baghdad Dialogue Conference at the same time that “all political forces agree on moving forward to ensure that all arms remain under state authority and on developing mechanisms for the handover of weapons. There are no intentions or prospects of any military confrontation, and we will not allow Iraq’s enemies to exploit any opportunity. The presence of weapons outside state authority creates an environment that discourages investment, which is unacceptable because it does not serve the interests of Iraqis.”

Popular Mobilization Forces, PMU.

Members of the Islamic Movement of Iraq — a faction of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) paramilitaries — gather during a rally to mark annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day commemorations in Baghdad on April 5, 2024. (Murtaj Lateef/AFP via Getty Images)

In May, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly, Iraq’s deputy minister of oil, because he, according to the designation, “abuses his position to facilitate the diversion of oil to be sold for the benefit of the Iranian regime and its proxy militias in Iraq.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time, “Like a rogue gang, the Iranian regime is pillaging resources that rightfully belong to the Iraqi people,” adding “Treasury will not stand idly by as Iran’s military exploits Iraqi oil to fund terrorism against the United States and our partners.”

In late August, the UAE’s The National paper reported that “Iraq’s anti-corruption body announced that deputy oil minister, Al-Bahadly, was sentenced to seven years in prison and fined millions of dollars for corruption.

Reacting to reports that Iran approved passage of Iraqi oil tankers via the Strait of Hormuz, Alberto Fernandez, former U.S. ambassador and Mideast analyst, claimed that “the profit from that Iraqi oil goes, in part, to pay for Iran’s own Iraqi militias/death squads on the Iraqi government’s payroll.” 

An Iraqi government spokesman dismissed Fernandez’s comments, telling News Outlet, “That is not accurate.”

Protesters wave Iranian and Iraqi Hezbollah flags and hold portraits during a rally in Basra.

Demonstrators in Basra, Iraq, on Feb. 28, 2026, protest U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. (Haidar Mohammed Ali/Anadolu via Getty Images)

A State Department spokesperson told News Outlet, “Iraq has embarked on a new direction under the leadership of Prime Minister Al-Zaidi in full partnership with the United States. As President Trump made clear when he hosted Prime Minister Al-Zaidi’s historic July 14 visit, the United States strongly supports his vision to ensure a brighter future for all Iraqis free from terrorism, to prevent attacks in and from Iraqi territory, and to deliver a strong and mutually beneficial U.S.-Iraq partnership.”

Entifadh Qanbar, a former spokesman for the deputy prime minister of Iraq during the George W. Bush administration, told News Outlet: “We were all hoping that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi would take decisive action against the militias, especially after his visit to the White House and the widespread praise he received from President Trump. I was always skeptical, very skeptical, but I believed he deserved a chance.”

Qanbar added, “Initially, some militias such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Imam Ali (sanctioned by the U.S.) merely issued statements claiming they would hand over their weapons. There has been no credible evidence that they have actually disarmed.”

Esmail Qaani

Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC Quds Force, participates in a religious ceremony in Tehran on June 13. (Anonymous/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Qanbar claimed that “any remaining hope was further diminished after IRGC [Islamic Republic Guard Corps] Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani visited Baghdad. According to multiple reports, he instructed militia leaders to slow down any discussion of disarmament, reject the September 30 deadline, and maintain their weapons as part of Iran’s broader regional deterrence strategy.”

When asked about Iraqi state efforts to dismantle the PMU, Elizabeth Tsurkov, a senior non-resident fellow at the New Lines Institute in Washington, D.C., told News Outlet, “The Iraqi government is trying. It genuinely carried out some moves. Unfortunately, because the militias are extremely willing to use force against their own people, including against security forces, the government finds itself in a position of backing down in the face of these militias.”

She noted, “The militias have penetrated most state institutions… and you see repeated situations of the state backing down.” Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group designated by the U.S. as a terrorist organization, kidnapped Tsurkov in 2023 and held her hostage for nearly two years. The Trump administration secured her release in 2025.

The power of the PMU was demonstrated in a recent setback for the Iraqi government.

Iran backed militants in Iraq

Masked Iran-backed Shi’ite fighters hold their weapons in Iraq’s Al Hadidiya, south of Tikrit, en route to the Islamic State-controlled al-Alam town, on March 6, 2015. (Reuters/Thaier Al-Sudani)

Both Qanbar and Tsurkov cited the case of the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service (CTS), which arrested Abbas al-Yaqubi, the head of intelligence for the Popular Mobilization Forces’ Baghdad Belt Operations Command.

A few days after al-Yaqubi’s arrest, he was transferred to the PMU intelligence branch. Qanbar said: “Al-Yaqubi has long been involved in violence against Iraqi activists, and many viewed his arrest as an important signal that the government was finally willing to confront powerful militia figures. What seemed like a significant step forward turned into a major setback.”

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