WASHINGTON — The White House is preparing for President Trump to be passed over again when the Nobel Peace Prize is announced Friday, though some experts believe he could still have a route to the prestigious honor later in his presidency.
Several humanitarian organizations are considered leading contenders this year, in part as a response to the controversy surrounding last year’s winner. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado also fueled calls for Trump’s recognition when she presented him with her medal during a January visit to the White House, declaring that he deserved the prize.
Other names drawing attention include Pope Leo IX, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny. First lady Melania Trump has also received praise for helping reunite 34 Ukrainian and Russian children with their families, though she is viewed as a long shot for the award.
Trump has openly acknowledged that he wants the prize for himself.
“I settled eight wars. Another one is coming. I got all the hostages back. I did things that nobody else has ever done. I’m not bragging. I’m just telling you the facts,” he told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday.
The president nevertheless suggested that he does not expect to receive the award this year.
“They have a reputation for maybe not giving it to people like me,” he said of the Nobel Committee. “But I, whether I get it or not, I have done far more, and I think it would be a great discredit to them. And I’m not saying that out of scorn.”
The Iran war, launched by Trump in coordination with Israel, is widely viewed as a significant obstacle to his Nobel prospects.
Yet some observers say Trump could remain in contention during his presidency if he achieves two major goals: ending the Russia-Ukraine war and securing peace in the Middle East.
“Donald Trump can always turn this around,” Dr. Arta Moeini, research director at the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy, told The Post. “He could forge a new Middle East, and he could forge it diplomatically and through peace rather than through bombs and war. If he can deliver on his America First promises, then he would be a very good contender for this in the coming years.”
Moeini, however, expects this year’s prize to go to an organization.
“It’s most likely going to some sort of a peace group,” he said. “There’s so many wars going on. It would be kind of strange to give it to another kind of domestic freedom fighter type of person.”
The winner is selected by the five members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, whose members are appointed by Norway’s parliament.
“The president deserves it. I don’t know if the committee will feel that way,” a senior administration official told The Post. “It’s pretty clear that they’re not supportive of the president, but he deserves it.”
“This isn’t about people not deserving it, because there’s a lot of good candidates,” the official added. “But I think the president stands out the best because of everything that he’s done.”
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A total of 287 candidates were nominated this year, including 208 individuals and 79 organizations. The nominations remain confidential for 50 years and are stored in a vault beneath the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo. Some nominators disclose their choices publicly, and several Republicans have said they put Trump forward.
Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), who nominated Trump, said the Nobel committee never contacted him to confirm the submission. He said he would be disappointed, though not surprised, if Trump does not win.
“Even the Nobel Peace Prize has become politicized,” Carter said.
Carter nevertheless told The Post that the war with Iran will ultimately produce peace in the Middle East, an outcome he said should be considered in future Nobel deliberations.
“We’re never going to have peace in the Middle East until Iran is under control,” Carter said. “Through the conflict in Iran and through addressing this situation in Iran, he’s trying to ultimately get to peace. You will never get to peace in the Middle East until you have the leading state sponsor of terrorism under control.”
Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, wrote in the Guardian: “Trump will not win. A sitting president waging a war against Iran is an impossible candidate for a prize intended to advance peace.”
Gjerlow is a well-known expert on the prize and publishes a list of top contenders for the honor.
Among his picks this year are several humanitarian organizations, including Save the Children, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, The Committee to Protect Journalists, The International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, and The International Space Station.
Many experts see the Sudan group, which is made of all volunteers, and the Space Station as the favorites.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms was a response to the increased humanitarian needs, particularly after the Trump administration slashed USAID, Gjerlow noted. The group highlights “the critical importance of access to lifesaving aid in times of conflict, and the power of everyday citizens to serve humanity in difficult times.”
And the International Space Station, which is scheduled to be decommissioned in the early 2030s, is a great example of Europe, the United States and Russia working together, he said.
“Space is becoming increasingly crowded, commercialized, and potentially weaponized. A Nobel Peace Prize for the ISS partnership would celebrate what humanity can achieve when we work together,” Gjerlow wrote.
Other individuals named are seen as having a slimmer chance.
Carney was briefly the favorite on Kalshi, the online betting market. The Canadian prime minister made an international name for himself by standing up to Trump, but that may not be enough to get him a peace prize.
Of the individuals talked about, Pope Leo — the new American pontiff who took office last year — is seen as having the best chance.
“I actually see him as a dark horse,” Moeini said, noting that even though the pope is an individual, he is seen more as the representative of an organization, the Catholic Church. “He speaks for decency and is, in some ways, a critic of Donald Trump.”
