As of Monday, a noteworthy development has emerged in the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model, signaling a pivotal shift in the electoral landscape. For the first time, the model has transitioned from declaring the race a ‘toss up’ to indicating a ‘lean Trump’ scenario. This change is fueled by an influx of recent polling data that reveals Vice President Kamala Harris’s national lead has either diminished significantly or vanished entirely. Furthermore, these polls highlight that former President Trump has secured a slight advantage in several key swing states, which are crucial in determining the outcome of the upcoming election.

Integrating the latest figures into our proprietary prediction model paints a picture where Trump emerges victorious in 62.4 percent of simulations. This marks an increase from the 59.8 percent chance recorded at the close of the previous week. These updated statistics imply that momentum is favoring Trump over Harris, prompting a shift in the overall forecast from a ‘toss up’ to ‘lean Trump.’

Nevertheless, Harris still maintains almost a 40 percent probability of winning, underscoring the potential for this election to rank among the closest in history. With three weeks remaining in the campaign, the stakes are high, and the race remains intensely competitive. Callum Hunter, a data scientist with J.L. Partners, pointed to pivotal polls, including those from the New York Times, which give Trump a five to six-point lead in Arizona. Meanwhile, Harris holds a three to four-point lead in Pennsylvania, and a Redfield and Wilton poll reveals Trump with a two-point lead in this crucial battleground state.

‘The race continues to move in Trumps’ favor despite a New York Times poll giving Harris the edge in Pennsylvania,’ he wrote in his latest briefing memo. ‘This poll was balanced out by a poll from R&W and the underlying national shift against Harris. ‘It is important to remember that this model uses correlations as well as national vote shares to obtain each state’s average. This means that every state poll affects every other state – so a single poll that is good for Harris is not necessarily going to push things in that state in her favor.

‘The model looks at the WHOLE picture of the country, not single spot polls. The trend is continuing in Trump’s favor and has shown little sign of changing since it began at the end of September. ‘Momentum is building, and with just over three weeks left, Harris might not have the force to reverse the direction of voters.’ Harris entered the race in July when President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign. She enjoyed weeks of positive headlines and record-breaking fundraising.

But a bump in the polls has gently come undone and our election model has followed a reversal in fortunes, as Trump has overtaken her in recent weeks. Overall the most likely outcome is unchanged from Friday, with Trump forecast to win 312 Electoral college votes to Harris’ 226. With 538 up for grabs, the magic number for victory is 270. The shifting dynamics also reduce the probability that Pennsylvania (where according to our latest J.L. Partners poll the two candidates are in a dead heat, polling 47 percent each) is the deciding state.

Last week it was the deciding battleground in 40 percent of the simulations; now it is decided in 36 percent. Michigan and North Carolina are the next two states most likely to tip one or other candidate over the winning line. You can explore the latest data in our array of widgets, which show you just how the numbers have moved in each state.

Nevada, for example, has moved towards Trump by 3.1 points this week and he is now predicted to win it in 60.5 percent of our simulation. That means it has moved from ‘toss up’ to ‘lean Trump. In Arizona, Trump’s win probability has increased by a further 2.6 points keeping it firmly in the ‘likely Trump’ column.

So too Georgia, where there has been a slight movement to Trump. He has a 72.3 percent chance of victory in the state. And Michigan remains in toss up territory, but it has moved to the former president by 2.1 points.

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