A firearm-owning Democratic farmer gaining unexpected traction in heavily Republican Arkansas is fueling fresh anxiety that Donald Trump’s party could be headed for serious trouble across the South in the midterms.
Hallie Shoffner, who is challenging Republican Senator Tom Cotton, led him by three points in a Local Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll, a striking finding in one of the nation’s reddest states.
The survey put Shoffner at 47 percent and Cotton at 44 percent — a remarkable snapshot from Arkansas, where Trump won by more than 30 points in 2024.
Some Republicans have cautioned against reading too much into a single poll, but the numbers have nevertheless set off alarm bells among political operatives with less than three months remaining before the midterm elections.
One GOP strategist told Our News Outlet that the Arkansas result fits into a broader pattern suggesting Republican candidates are losing ground in parts of the South.
‘We’re in a dark moment, this could be a blowout,’ the strategist told Our News Outlet. ‘There’s not a solid South anymore.’
Democrats need to pick up a net four seats to win control of the Senate, and party strategists are targeting Republican-held or competitive states including North Carolina, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio.
The strategist also warned that Republicans could fall well short against incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia and may struggle to secure enough support in tight Senate contests in North Carolina and even Texas.
Hallie Shoffner, her husband Michael Sullivan and their son Max
Hallie Shoffner (pictured in a fire truck, left, and holding a shotgun, right), the Democratic challenger to Senator Tom Cotton, was found to be three points ahead in the deep-red state according to a Local Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll
A poll showing Senator Cotton has triggered alarm among some Republicans in Washington, DC
The Hendrix poll has catapulted Shoffner into the national media, giving her fresh fundraising and boosting her campaign momentum.
As a sixth generation farmer, Shoffner is focusing directly on domestic concerns of high fuel and food costs, blaming Cotton’s support for the war in Iran.
‘Tom Cotton has wanted to go to war in Iran for 12 years, he finally got the war he wanted and we’re paying for it,’ Shoffner said in an interview with Morning Joe, claiming the war was costing the US ‘a billion dollars a day.’
A second Republican strategist expressed concerns to Our News Outlet about Trump’s unpopular war in Iran dragging down support for their candidates, particularly among swing voters.
‘Look at what independents are saying about Iran, they think Trump and Senate Republicans are sending billions of dollars overseas that would otherwise go them,’ the consultant said.
Some strategists are comparing the moment to the 2006 midterms as an unpopular president, House Republican scandals, high gas prices, and an unpopular Iraq war led to a six-seat gain for Democrats in the Senate and a 30 seat gain in the House.
But other GOP operatives were more skeptical of the Arkansas poll, telling Our News Outlet the unreliable local polling company was ‘garbage’ and favored Democrats.
The outlying poll sparked interest in the race, prompting JL Partners to run its own poll for the Washington Examiner, which reported that Cotton was currently enjoying a 16-point lead.
‘I’m confident that we’ve got it right,’ James Johnson told Our News Outlet. ‘This is just radically different, and it just seems to be clear that it can’t be right because you’d be looking at a completely different universe.’
JL Partners also works to produce polling in partnership with Our News Outlet.
Johnson noted that there was still cause for concern for the Cotton campaign, as his support was down from previous elections.
Senator Tom Cotton is a staunch supporter of President Donald Trump’s military operations in Iran
Senator Tom Cotton, seen here at the 2024 Republican convention with his son greeting Donald Trump, is facing new competition in the midterm elections
Democrat Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner of Arkansas made a political splash last week
‘There is definitely a swing away from the Republicans, but it’s just not as big a swing to put that state into play,’ he said.
Other typically safe incumbent seats in places like Nebraska and Montana are also being closely monitored for erosion among the GOP faithful.
Cotton won his Senate race in 2014 with a 17 point margin, and in 2020 a 33-point margin over a Libertarian candidate, making an upset unlikely, but the Arkansas Senator is showing signs that he is feeling the heat.
After President Trump’s decision to import foreign beef into the United States, Shoffner condemned the decision and called out Cotton publicly.
After a day of silence, Cotton joined critics of the decision, warning Trump that it would hurt Arkansas ranchers.
Cotton and his allies are now responding to Shoffner’s attacks with renewed vigor, reminding voters of her more leftist positions in the past.
Right-wing political influencer Laura Loomer, a Cotton ally, is routinely questioning Shoffner’s authenticity as a farmer, posting old videos supporting the import of cheap foreign-born labor, fighting climate change, and even participating in a ‘pro-trans parade’ in Lima, Peru.
The Cotton campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
‘Hallie Shoffner is a far-left fraud touting statistical garbage to distract Arkansans from her campaign to raise taxes, re-open the border, and defund law enforcement,’ Bernadette Breslin the National Republican Senatorial Committee national press secretary, told Our News Outlet in a statement.
