As the countdown to Election Day reaches its final month, former President Donald Trump has surged ahead in a significant lead according to our election model.
Recent polling across pivotal battleground states highlights Trump’s advantage. After analyzing this data with our DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners model, Trump emerges victorious in 56.7 percent of the simulated scenarios.
The journey to the White House, as usual, hinges heavily on Pennsylvania, with its critical 19 electoral votes.
Previously categorized as a ‘tossup,’ our model now shifts Pennsylvania to ‘lean Trump,’ a potentially game-changing development in the election’s dynamics.
Without securing Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris faces an uphill battle to victory, even if she manages to claim states like Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
With narrowed avenues to reach the necessary electoral college majority, Harris prevails in only 43.2 percent of the simulations.
It means that, overall, Trump moves out to a 13-point lead from just five points earlier in the week.
To be clear, this is not like a poll lead. Instead, it shows the frequency with which Trump wins the electoral college when our model crunches through all the thousands of possible permutations of states using all the latest available data (along with decades worth of election results combined with economic data.)
Until now his highest point was a 10-point advantage last month, but that number has waxed and waned with fresh inputs of data.
And the race remains incredibly close.
Harris is on course to win the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight elections.)
Minnesota is looking safer than ever for her, solidifying her electoral college floor, and she is two points stronger in Michigan, where both she and Trump campaigned Thursday.
But the latest model outcome shows a clear direction of travel, said Callum Hunter, data scientist with J.L. Partners.
Former President Donald Trump has been focused on the Midwest for the past week. On Thursday he was in Michigan and after a Pennsylvania rally Saturday will be in Wisconsin
‘After a brief hiatus over the past week, Trump’s dominance appears to be back – although this may just be the cyclical nature of the polls,’ said Hunter in his most recent assessment.
‘That being said, there has been a steady increase, since the drop in Trump’s probability on Sept. 24, in his probability of winning the electoral college.
‘It is a sign of the ebbing support for Harris after her two stellar months as the heir presumptive and the new candidate.
‘It seems that, at least according to our model, Trump has slightly solidified his coalition and is on course to win in around three out of every five simulations.’
He added that the worst news for Harris was seeing Pennsylvania move to ‘lean Trump.
‘This could all change with the polls next week but the current situation looks bleak for Harris—we are in the place where a small movement can make a big difference,’ he said.
Vice President Kamala Harris was also in Michigan on Thursday
J.L. Partners is running its model twice a week, with all the latest data.
Some days it shows little change. Other times, like today, it shows one side or the other making a move.
One other imponderable that the model will need to calculate is the impact of Hurricane Helene. It roared through the South-east last week.
It caused more damage in Republican voting areas of North Carolina than other parts of the state, for example, so any impact on turnout could have a disproportionate impact on the Trump campaign.
At the same time, criticism of the federal emergency response could spell bad news for Vice President Harris.
