After running the numbers, stats boffins have revealed who the least efficient strike force in the Premier League is, with one side managing to under-perform their expected goals by a whopping 0.40 strikes.
The efficiency has been calculated by quantifying the number of expected goals – penalties excluded – that a team might have according to how dangerous each chance is, the number of shots on target a team has, and how many they manage in total.
As such, each team has been given a value that shows just how well, or poorly, they have performed in at the business end of the pitch over the course of the campaign.
Here, Mail Sport run you through the numbers, provided by CIES Football Observatory, to show who has under and over-performed their expected goals so far this season.
Manchester United have scored the sixth-fewest goals in the Premier League for 2023-24
The Red Devils have only scored 1.25 goals a game when penalties are excluded this season
According to the data, the most efficient side at putting away chances is Premier League leaders Arsenal, who are exceeding their expected goals by a whopping 0.43 per game.
That the Gunners lead the way is perhaps not surprising given they are also the top scorers in the division – with 70 goals in 2023-24, five clear of Liverpool in second.
The Gunners are currently averaging 2.21 non-penalty goals a game, with an expected tally of 1.78, which is only the sixth-best of the 20 teams in the table.
Although Liverpool are the next most prolific side in the top-flight, and Manchester City have an embarrassment of attacking riches and creative maestros within their ranks, it is in fact the Gunners’ arch nemesis Tottenham and David Moyes’ West Ham in second spot.
Spurs take second spot after out-performing their expected goals by 0.24, level with the Hammers who have seen Jarrod Bowen flourish once more this term.
In fourth spot is Eddie Howe’s injury-ravaged Newcastle side who have scored 0.17 goals more than expected, with the Magpies closely followed by both Nottingham Forest and Luton Town. The relegation-threatened duo are 0.14 goals better off than the stats indicate they ought to be.
Next comes Jurgen Klopp’s title-chasers Liverpool, with 0.11 more goals per game than expected, despite managing the second-highest xG-per-game in the league and the most shots per match (18.07).
Local rivals Aston Villa and Wolves are both tied in eighth on 0.08 over expected, with Burnley surprisingly in 10th spot on +0.05 after managing the second-fewest goals expected and scored.
Fulham are in 11th with -0.03, the side closest to their expected tally in the league although falling a hair’s breadth short in that pursuit ahead of the top-flight’s lowest scorers and least threatening side Sheffield United.
Arsenal are the league’s top scorers and have also out-performed their xG by 0.43 per match
Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham are the second most efficient side in the league
Liverpool are the second top scorers and have had more shots than anyone else on average
Rasmus Hojlund is United’s joint-top scorer this season but only has seven goals in the league
Man City fall in 13th spot surprisingly, though that is only because they are average 2.11 goals per game rather than the 2.19 they are supposed to be scoring based on the stats.
A striker of the talents of Erling Haaland – who leads the way in the division with 18 – has benefited massively from their creativity, Pep Guardiola’s side recording the most shots on target of any Premier League side (6.68-per-game).
Behind City come Chelsea (-0.15), Crystal Palace (-0.16), Brentford (-0.18) and Brighton (-0.20) before a slight jump to Bournemouth who sit in 18th spot despite 12.89 shots per game that are enough to rank them ninth in the division.
United then come in in 19th and are scoring only 1.25 non-penalty goals that would see them ranked 15th in the league by that statistic, with only Everton less efficient in front of goal on a staggering -0.45, another 50 per cent worse off than the Red Devils.
When each of the top five leagues in Europe are taken into account, Arsenal are the third most efficient team, dropping down two spots behind Italian duo Roma (+0.52) and Inter Milan (+0.44).
Roma’s exceptional return is enough to put them third from all 54 of the leagues that the data encompasses, behind only Sporting Club de Portugal (+0.59) and Greek Super League outfit PAOK with a stunning 0.69 more strikes per game than their xG warrants.
With only 5.07 shots on target per game and a return of 2.41 non-penalty goals on average, the Greek side are therefore scoring with almost half their shots on target, which is staggering.
Arsenal may be leading the way in the Premier League but the most efficient side in the whole country is actually League One’s Wigan, with 0.47 more goals per game than expected.
Erling Haaland has 18 goals this term – more than anyone else – but Manchester City are still under-performing their xG by 0.08 goals a game during the 2023-24 campaign
Daniele De Rossi’s Roma are the most efficient side in Europe according to the numbers
League One outfit Wigan are surprisingly the most efficient goal scorers in the country
The Gunners however do still lead European heavyweights Bayern Munich (+0.36) and PSG (+0.26), as well as surprise packages Bayer Leverkusen (+0.35) and Girona (+0.27).
Jude Bellingham’s Real Madrid are only scoring 0.07 goals per game more than their xG, which would put them between Burnley and Wolves, while Barcelona have managed 0.18 fewer than they should be, which would place them on a par with Brentford.
The least impressive strike forces are dominated by Ligue 1, with six of the bottom 10 sides based in France, though Nice lead the way on -0.56, followed by Lyon (-0.49), Rayo Vallecano (-0.48) and Montpellier (-0.47) before Dyche’s Everton in fifth-bottom.
The only team with a worse efficiency rating than Nice in the whole world though is Melbourne City, who have somehow managed to score 0.63 goals fewer per game than the stats show they should be.
