Stocks surged significantly on Monday following former President Donald Trump’s announcement of plans to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry after the capture of the country’s socialist leader, Nicolas Maduro.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 1.4 percent, marking a new record high. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite, known for its concentration of technology stocks, experienced a 0.9 percent rise, and the S&P 500 index increased by 0.7 percent.
Despite the dramatic political developments, crude oil prices remained unexpectedly stable, as investors speculated that the military intervention would not trigger widespread geopolitical disruptions. U.S. crude oil dipped by 31 cents, or 0.54 percent, to settle at $57.01 per barrel. Concurrently, Brent crude, the global benchmark, decreased by 22 cents to reach $60.53 per barrel.
The usual ‘war premium’ was completely counterbalanced by the anticipation that Venezuela’s vast oil reserves—the largest in the world—might eventually flood the market under U.S. control.
At the market’s opening, shares in the energy sector saw a broad uptick, benefiting companies with extensive refinery operations in particular.
Venezuela is known for producing heavy crude oil, a key ingredient in the manufacture of diesel fuel, asphalt, and other fuels required for heavy machinery.
Diesel is in short supply around the world because of the sanctions on oil from Venezuela and Russia and because America’s lighter crude oil can’t easily replace it.
‘A bullish production outlook would be a big boost for US refiners, as much of the Gulf Coast refining capacity is designed to run heavy/sour crude like those from Venezuela,’ wrote energy analyst John Freeman of Raymond James.
Big refiners like Valero, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 rose between 5 and 6 percent at the opening bell.
Trump, walks on to the stage to deliver remarks to Sailors and Marines inside the hangar bay of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington at Fleet Activities Yokosuka, October 28, 2025 in Yokosuka, Japan
The Dow was up 1.4 percent to new all-time highs
The tech-heavy Nasdaq clocked a 0.9 percent gain
Oilfield service companies, those that actually go into the field and do the drilling and upkeep, rose even more sharply.
Schlumberger and Halliburton rose between 7 and 8 percent.
Major oil exploratory companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips rose between 2 and 4 percent.
The rally for Exxon and Conoco isn’t just about future drilling, but the potential for multi-billion dollar asset recovery.
Both companies have spent nearly two decades pursuing legal claims against Venezuela for the 2007 seizure of their assets.
Trump’s stated plan to ‘run the country’ during the transition is being viewed by analysts as the first realistic path toward resolving these historic debts or regaining former drilling rights as part of a new settlement.
The tech sector’s advance, led by the Nasdaq, was fueled in part by investor optimism surrounding energy-intensive AI infrastructure.
With the prospect of a US-led revival of Venezuela’s massive heavy crude reserves, ideal for diesel and heavy equipment fuel, Wall Street is betting on a long-term reduction in energy costs for the power-hungry data centers that form the backbone of the AI industry.
This sentiment was further bolstered by the kickoff of Consumer Electronics Show 2026 in Las Vegas, where major hardware announcements from Nvidia and Intel have kept tech sentiment high despite the geopolitical shifts.
Venezuela’s oil industry is in disrepair after years of neglect and international sanctions.
Some oil industry analysts believe that Venezuela could double or triple its current output of about 1.1 million barrels of oil a day and return the nation to historic production levels relatively quickly, others see a much longer road ahead.
‘While the Trump administration has suggested large US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend billions to fix infrastructure, we believe political and other risks along with current relatively low oil prices could prevent this from happening anytime soon,’ wrote Neal Dingmann of William Blair.
Material change to Venezuelan production will take a lot of time and millions of dollars of infrastructure improvement, he said.
Any investment in Venezuelan energy infrastructure right now would take place in a weakened global energy market.
Crude prices in the US are down 20 percent compared with last year. The price for a barrel of benchmark US crude hasn’t been above $70 since June, and hasn’t touched $80 per barrel since the summer of 2024.
JPMorgan foresees a brief, sharp dip in Venezuelan production, but said production could reach 1.3 million to 1.4 million barrels per day within two years of a political transition.
‘With new investments and major institutional reforms, output could potentially expand to 2.5 mbd over the next decade,’ JPMorgan wrote.
Yet almost all energy analysts said the situation is extremely fluid. Freeman of Raymond James pointed to an abundance of unknowns, including how quickly US energy companies would be willing to invest.
‘Additionally, other areas of interest include further actions by the U.S. in Latin America (e.g., Cuba?), along with continued unrest in Iran,’ Freeman wrote. ‘There’s plenty of uncertainty in the backdrop, and clearly 2026 is off to a ‘hot’ start.’
