NEW YORK — The opening of the trading week saw a significant surge in oil prices, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iranian targets, along with subsequent retaliatory strikes on Israel and American bases in the Gulf region, have thrown the global energy supply chain into turmoil.
In the wake of these conflicts, traders are concerned that oil exports from Iran and other Middle Eastern nations may face significant disruptions. The volatility was exacerbated by attacks on two ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz, the critical passageway at the Persian Gulf’s entry. Such incidents threaten to curtail the flow of oil to international markets, potentially leading to elevated prices for crude oil and gasoline, as noted by energy analysts.
West Texas Intermediate, a benchmark for U.S. crude oil, reflected these market anxieties, with prices climbing to approximately $72 per barrel on Sunday evening, marking an 8% increase from Friday’s trading value of about $67.
The Strait of Hormuz is a pivotal maritime artery, with around 15 million barrels of crude oil passing through daily — accounting for about 20% of the global oil supply. This strait, flanked by Iran to the north, serves as a conduit for oil and gas exports from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Iran itself, as reported by Rystad Energy.
Previously, in mid-February, Iran had temporarily closed portions of this vital waterway, citing military exercises. Any further disturbances in this channel could severely impact the global oil supply, triggering a rise in prices.
Iran had temporarily shut down parts of the strait in mid-February for what it said was a military drill. Further disruptions to that shipping channel could lead to lower supply and higher prices for oil.
Attacks throughout the region, including on two vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, could restrict countries’ ability to export oil to the rest of the world. That would likely result in higher prices for crude oil and gasoline, according to energy experts.
Against that backdrop, eight countries that are part of the OPEC+ oil cartel announced they would boost production of crude Sunday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a meeting planned before the war began, said it would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, which was more than analysts had been expecting. The countries boosting output include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
“Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for world trade, meaning markets are more concerned with whether barrels can move than with spare capacity on paper,” said Jorge León, Rystad’s senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis, in an email. “If flows through the Gulf are constrained, additional production will provide limited immediate relief, making access to export routes far more important than headline output targets.”
Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China, which may need to look elsewhere for supply if Iran’s exports are disrupted, another factor that could increase energy prices.
Copyright © 2026 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.
