Experts suggest that the Labour Party may be on the brink of losing close to 2,000 council seats in the upcoming local elections in May.
According to analysts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, more than 60% of the councillors representing Sir Keir Starmer’s party, who will be contesting these elections, could potentially lose their seats.
The analysts also predict that if the trend observed in local by-elections since May persists, the Prime Minister might see a loss of more than 1,000 councillors.
Such a significant setback could be perilous for the Prime Minister, who has long faced speculation about a possible leadership challenge should the election results prove unfavorable.
The Conservative Party is anticipated to encounter challenges not only in delayed county council elections but also from the expected significant gains by Reform UK, according to the experts.
On May 7, voters will head to the polls across 136 councils, with 5,013 seats up for grabs. Labour is defending 2,557 of these seats, while the Conservatives have 1,362, the Liberal Democrats 684, and independents and others hold 410.
In an analysis for the Local Government Chronicle, Mr Rallings and Mr Thrasher say Labour will be hit hard in May.
It will be battling Reform in northern metropolitan councils, while the Tories are vulnerable in county councils and some outer London boroughs, they said.
Labour could lose ‘well over’ 1,000 councillors – and nearer 2,000 if pattern of by-elections continues, say top pollsters
Their prediction comes after Reform won nearly 700 seats in last year’s local elections from a standing start, while the Conservatives lost two-thirds of the seats they were defending.
The pair said that this year, Labour was in the spotlight as it was defending more than half of the 5,013 seats falling vacant across 136 councils.
‘That dominance reflects the party’s strength in London and the metropolitan boroughs where it currently controls no fewer than 44 of the 64 councils with elections,’ they said.
‘A repeat of last year and Labour could be well over 1,000 councillors down.
‘Indeed, it has retained just a quarter of the seats being defended at local by-elections since last May, suffering an average decline of 25per cent in vote share.
‘A hit of that magnitude would see the party’s losses edging closer to 2,000.’
Labour is facing a ‘tough fight’ with Reform in metropolitan boroughs including Barnsley, Sandwell, Sunderland and Wakefield.
It is also likely to sustain a ‘double-pronged attack from its left’ in London from the Greens and pro-Gaza independents, they added.
‘Several councillors have defected from Labour to the Greens in recent months in places like Brent, Lewisham and Southwark,’ they said.
‘There and in north east boroughs like Hackney, Islington and Newham, Green gains may be expected.’
They noted that Labour’s approach to the Middle East ate into Labour support at the 2024 general election and was likely to ‘hurt the party again’.
The pair said that if Reform performs as well as it did last year, it would be likely to take control of Essex county council and be a significant presence in others.
The Tories, meanwhile, face ‘particular jeopardy’ in some seats and could lose seats to Reform, the pair said.
Kemi Badenoch’s party fared badly in last year’s local elections, losing two-thirds of the seats and overall control of the councils they were defending.
Meanwhile, Reform won nearly 700 seats from a standing start and a majority in 10 councils.
‘The Conservatives hold little more than a quarter of the overall vacancies but face particular jeopardy in the county contests postponed from 2025,’ they said.
‘It may be that support for Reform has plateaued, but given it won only three seats four years ago substantial gains from such a low base are inevitable.’
