In a defining moment for Texas politics, Attorney General Ken Paxton emerged victorious in the primary runoff election on Tuesday, decisively ousting incumbent Senator John Cornyn. This triumph comes just a week after gaining the crucial endorsement of former President Trump, which played a significant role in shaping the race’s outcome.
Paxton’s overwhelming win marks the third in a series of notable Republican contests over a ten-day span, further highlighting Trump’s significant sway within the party. This victory follows the defeats of Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, both of which underscored Trump’s influence.
During the March 3 primary, Cornyn narrowly led Paxton by 2.5 percentage points. However, in that initial round, Trump’s absence from the endorsement scene left both candidates short of the 50% needed to clinch the nomination outright, setting the stage for the runoff.
Looking ahead to the November 3 general election, Paxton, aged 63, will face off against Democratic state Representative James Talarico. This matchup is pivotal as it could be a deciding factor in whether Republicans retain control of the Senate.
Talarico, 37, secured his place as the Democratic nominee after defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett in the March primary. As the race heats up, a recent poll conducted by Texas Southern University and YouGov, released on May 18, indicates a tightly contested battle, with Paxton and Talarico each garnering 45% support.
The stakes are historically high in this race, as Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since Lloyd Bentsen’s fourth-term victory in 1988. The outcome of this election could signal a shift in the state’s political landscape.
Cornyn, 74, will depart the Senate having served failed in his bid to win a fifth term.
The incumbent had polled slightly better against Talarico than Paxton and GOP establishment figures, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and scores of Cornyn’s colleagues had begged Trump to make the safe choice.
Cornyn had backed calls to weaken the filibuster and championed the SAVE America Act to require proof of citizenship to vote, among other conservative wishlist items, during the scramble to get Trump’s endorsement.
On the eve of Trump’s announcement, Cornyn acknowledged that he believed “that ship has finally sailed,” when asked if he thought he would receive the president’s backing.
Paxton has touted his history of suing to defend conservative values, including the more than 100 lawsuits against the Biden administration over “open borders policies, government overreach, attacks on the Second Amendment, and the far-left’s radical agenda.”
However, Paxton has a history of scandal that some Republicans warned would make for a more difficult race.
Back in 2015, the Texas AG was indicted on securities fraud charges which were later dismissed.
In 2023, he was impeached over allegations that he obstructed justice in the securities fraud case, gave preferential treatment to a donor, made false statements against whistleblowers, and misappropriated public resources, among other concerns.
During the state Senate trial, Paxton was suspended from his duties, but ultimately survived in a narrow 16–14 vote.
The Texas Senate primaries were the most expensive in US history, with more than $110 million shelled out on advertising, according to Adimpact.
More than $64 million of that sum went to ads boosting Cornyn.
