A recent poll on the Los Angeles mayoral race, suggesting a neck-and-neck contest between Mayor Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt, and Nithya Raman, is facing criticism from seasoned political experts.
Published by UC Berkeley in collaboration with the Los Angeles Times on Thursday, the survey indicates Bass as the frontrunner with 26% of likely voter support. Raman trails closely with 25%, while Pratt shows a surprising climb to 22%.
However, experienced political strategists in Los Angeles have voiced concerns to The California Post, suggesting the poll fails to accurately capture the full scope of voter sentiment and significantly underestimates Pratt’s rising popularity.
Among those speaking out is Rick Taylor, a veteran strategist with five decades of experience in Los Angeles politics, who remains unaffiliated with any mayoral campaign.
Taylor points to internal discussions and campaign data indicating Bass with a more substantial lead at 32%, Pratt closely following at 30%, and Raman behind at 18%.
He contends that the issue lies in the methodology employed by many contemporary polling practices.
“These pollsters that believe in only doing digital, I do believe it is a weakness,” Taylor told The Post. “You miss people who are not inclined to spend 20 minutes on their phone or on a computer answering questions.”
Taylor called the Berkeley survey an “outlier” and warned that modern polling increasingly cuts corners by leaning too heavily on cheap digital outreach instead of costly live phone operations.
“That’s a poll that, I call it an outlier, because it’s just not dependable in my opinion,” Taylor said.
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Taylor argued the problem comes down to money.
He said a properly conducted Los Angeles poll can cost between $45,000 and $50,000 because campaigns and polling firms must repeatedly call voters, restart interviews when people hang up and pay trained operators to stay on the phones long enough to complete detailed surveys.
According to Taylor, those cheaper polling methods are missing the very voters driving Pratt’s surge.
“Every poll I’ve heard about in the last two and a half weeks has Spencer Pratt in second,” Taylor said.
Pratt, meanwhile, leaned into the skepticism surrounding the poll with a jab of his own on X.
“As a Trojan, i would never go off a UC Berkeley poll,” Pratt posted.
Taylor also warned weak turnout could completely scramble the race.
As of Thursday, turnout was hovering at just 7% citywide.
Taylor also noted the progressive voting bloc that powered Democratic Socialist victories across Los Angeles in recent years appears far less energized this cycle.
“I believe this is going to be the weakest showing from the Democratic Socialists that they’ve had in the last four years in LA,” Taylor said.
Instead, Taylor predicted moderate voters, particularly on the Westside, could play an outsized role in determining who survives the primary and advances to the runoff.
California primaries are set for Tuesday, June 2.
