Hawaii is bracing for another potentially dangerous Pacific storm, arriving on the heels of Hurricane Lala, which left widespread destruction across the islands and has been linked to at least two deaths.
Forecasters say the fast-developing weather system has become increasingly organized, with meteorologists now putting its odds of strengthening into a tropical cyclone by Friday at 90 percent.
AccuWeather experts expect the sprawling system to intensify into a hurricane by Saturday, with projections suggesting it could move to within 100 miles of Hawaii’s Big Island not long afterward.
Some forecast “spaghetti models,” which map a range of possible hurricane and tropical storm tracks, show a more alarming scenario: a path that could bring the storm directly over the Big Island by Sunday.
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned that the island remains particularly vulnerable after the recent disaster, saying: “The Big Island will be especially sensitive to flooding after Lala already caused significant flooding and mudslides last weekend.”
Current rainfall forecasts indicate the Big Island and nearby Maui could receive four to eight inches of rain as the system moves through. Parts of the Big Island may approach 12 inches, while AccuWeather cautions that the most extreme scenario could bring as much as 24 inches of rain.
Hawaii police have attributed two fatalities to Hurricane Lala, which hit the state on August 15 and caused an estimated $3 billion to $5 billion in damage. Around 100 homes were reportedly damaged or swept away by flooding and mudslides.
The system, currently designated Invest 90, is positioned less than 1,400 miles from Hawaii. If it develops into a cyclone and produces sustained winds between 39 and 74 mph, the National Hurricane Center will name it either Tropical Storm Iselle or Tropical Storm Moke, depending on where it forms in the Pacific.
A new tropical storm has been spotted forming in the Pacific near Hawaii, just days after Hurricane Lala devastated the island chain
Hurricane Lala has been blamed for two deaths and billions of dollars in damage from flooding and mudslides
Officials with NHC described the approaching storm as ‘producing showers and thunderstorms that continue to show signs of organization.’
‘A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as the system moves westward,’ the weather agency’s forecast revealed.
A tropical depression is the first stage of a tropical cyclone, where a low-pressure area forms with thunderstorms and relatively low winds.
However, these systems can quickly turn into a named tropical storm once those winds grow to a sustained speed of 39 mph with the classic swirling shape and defined center.
Currently, AccuWeather has predicted that Invest 90 will grow into a Category 1 hurricane, meaning it is expected to develop sustained winds of 75 to 95 mph.
Hurricane Lala struck Hawaii as a Category 1 storm, with its eye coming within 30 miles of the Big Island.
Spaghetti models suggest the new hurricane could take a very similar path, although several tracks predict it will stay farther south.
‘The rainfall amounts and location of the rain is going to be largely dependent on the storm track, which could move farther south and largely miss the islands. That doesn’t mean there wouldn’t be significant impacts to land, though,’ DaSilva warned.
Current tracks for the currently unnamed storm show a possible path that would make landfall on Hawaii’s Big Island
Hawaii’s Governor Josh Green said that 100 homes were damaged or lost in floods and mudslides during Hurricane Lala last weekend
Governor Josh Green of Hawaii revealed that Lala damaged or destroyed over 100 homes on Hawaiʻi Island, better known as the Big Island, with most of the devastation coming during severe flooding and mudslides in the Kaʻū District on the southside of the island.
The Hawai‘i Police Department also announced that 93-year-old May Doi, who was found in the Kaʻū District, and another unidentified man were both killed during the hurricane.
Doi, a resident of Nāʻālehu on Hawaiʻi Island, was last seen on August 14 as the hurricane approached and began to deliver heavy rains and winds.
She was reported missing on August 16 and later found dead Monday afternoon. Investigators believe the extreme weather played a role in Doi’s death but an exact cause has not been determined.
Meanwhile, the remains of the unidentified man, believed to be in his 60s, were discovered by residents on Tuesday in a pasture off Highway 11 in the Kaʻū District.
No foul play is suspected in either case and both deaths have been attributed to effects of Hurricane Lala.
The National Hurricane Center give Invest 90 (Center) a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm within two days. Hurricane Lala (Left) continues to rage in the Pacific Ocean
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Should Hawaii rethink its disaster preparedness in the face of back-to-back hurricanes and rising risks?
Meteorologists have been warning that the 2026 Pacific hurricane season could be particularly active due to the emergence of a ‘super’ El Nino in June.
El Nino is a natural climate pattern in which the central and eastern Pacific surface temperature becomes significantly warmer than average, flipping weather patterns worldwide.
Due to the significantly warmer water in the Pacific fueling tropical cyclone activity, forecasters with AccuWeather predicted there would be 17 to 22 named storms across the Pacific this year.
Between nine and 13 of those are projected to be hurricanes, and as many as eight are predicted to reach ‘major hurricane’ status at Category 3 or greater.
Hurricane Lala reached Category 3 status after moving past Hawaii and restrengthening in the Pacific this week.
‘Hawaii has gone a long time without a direct hurricane landfall, but that should not lead to complacency,’ DaSilva explained in May.
‘Some islands were hit hard by flash flooding in March. People across Hawaii should prepare for an increased risk of tropical impacts this year.’
