Britain is facing a higher-than-usual chance of a wetter autumn, with forecasters warning that the risk of flooding could rise as El Niño conditions in the Pacific approach near-record strength, the Met Office said today.
According to the latest outlook, the likelihood of the UK experiencing a warm, wet meteorological autumn is around one-and-a-half to two times greater than normal.
Forecasters also expect the potential for stronger winds to increase later in the season, although hosepipe bans are still likely to remain in place for months despite the shift toward more unsettled weather.
The warning comes as a powerful El Niño pattern in the Pacific, known to influence weather systems around the globe, raises the prospect of a generally wetter and stormier autumn across the UK.
The Met Office said forecasts have been pointing toward the development of one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded, with the current episode already close to record levels.
El Niño develops when sea surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific rise above average, a change that can disrupt atmospheric patterns and shape weather far beyond the region, including across Europe.
Previous El Niño events have often been linked to warmer, wetter and more storm-prone conditions in the UK and northern Europe during late autumn and early winter, a pattern the Met Office said broadly matches its latest seasonal forecast.
However, forecasters stressed that El Niño is only one of several major climate influences affecting UK weather, meaning it cannot precisely dictate the conditions Britain will see in the months ahead.
Tourists use umbrellas to shield themselves from the rain outside Buckingham Palace in London on Tuesday
Hackney Marshes still show signs of parched grass despite recent rainfall across London
The Met Office added that a greater chance of wetter and windier conditions than usual also brings a heightened risk of weather-related impacts, including flooding.
Met Office chief meteorologist Ian Lisk said: ‘The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events.
‘However, El Niño is only one of several factors affecting the UK’s weather and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience.
‘While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.
‘We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves.’
Despite the forecast, Anglian Water confirmed this week that a hosepipe ban covering seven million customers in eastern England is likely to remain in place for months.
Grant Tufts from the company told a Norfolk County Council meeting that restrictions could even be in force until winter, with significantly more rain needed to restore reservoir supplies.
Anglian Water supplies parts of Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Northamptonshire and Suffolk.
It comes after Thames Water said last month that the hosepipe ban in London and some surrounding areas is expected to be in place until ‘towards the end of the year’.
Nevil Muncaster, strategic water resources director at the beleaguered utility firm, said there had been ‘huge demand on top of our normal supplies’.
Despite the recent rain, Environment Agency officials said this week that almost three-quarters of England remain in drought – as the country continues to battle its third such event in five years.
While rain has turned the grass green again and it would be ‘understandable’ to think the drought was over, the agency said there was still a very long way to go, with concerns over a number of reservoirs at very low levels.
The warning came after the latest meeting of the National Drought Group of ministers, officials, water companies, farming leaders, anglers and conservation experts, which has focused on the impacts of the prolonged dry conditions on farmers.
A return to steady rain in many areas has provided relief for farmers as they continue to harvest root crops such as potatoes and carrots, though yields are variable.
And the hot weather has exacerbated the current outbreak of bluetongue, a disease spread by midges, which is putting pressure on livestock farmers, while some have had to use winter food stocks for their animals already because of the dry weather, the group heard.
Despite recent rain, the North East and North West of England remain in prolonged dry weather, and the rest of the country is in drought.
All regions continue to experience some degree of water stress after five widespread heatwaves during the hottest summer on record, and with less than two-thirds (64 per cent) of the expected seasonal rainfall.
Officials warn that the summer saw not only low rainfall but an increased demand by the public, agriculture and industry, with water use increasing by as much as 30 per cent on the hottest days.
The south and east of England has received just over half the expected rainfall in the past six months, and autumn and winter rainfall will be important to recharge groundwater reserves, a process that takes months through hardened soils.
Rainfall across August reached 78 per cent of the long-term average nationally, although south-east England received only 54 per cent.
But August 28 to September 3 was the wettest week since early February, according to Environment Agency figures, with ‘rainfall improving river flows, soil moisture deficits and environmental conditions across much of England’.
September has seen a third of its average monthly rainfall to date.
