My latest column for Our News Outlet has sparked a substantial backlash.
Last week, I reported that the Republican outlook for the midterms was continuing to deteriorate with fewer than 40 days remaining before the election. That assessment was based on conversations with Republican officeholders, candidates and strategists, including several staunch MAGA supporters.
The story quickly went viral, fueled in part by a series of posts on X that attracted more than 6 million views.
On Friday, I posted: “As of now, I’ve heard from 17 additional Republican strategists and all of them confirm what I’ve been told is accurate… and none have contacted me to complain or dispute my reporting.”
Several hours later, Chris LaCivita, who served as co-manager of Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, responded.
“I have received 18 calls all saying the same thing,” he wrote. “@MarkHalperin is full of s**t.”
My apparent offense was pointing out what seemed obvious, and so far I have not been persuaded otherwise. I am not an oracle; I am a journalist and analyst. My assessment of Republican electoral prospects is not based on public polling, which many Americans understandably view with skepticism. Nor am I presenting a personal hunch or predicting exactly what will happen.
Rather, I am reporting what I have heard from scores of Republican strategists and candidates involved in midterm contests nationwide. They have access to high-quality private polling, along with extensive qualitative and quantitative data, and much of that information has left them deeply pessimistic.
Chris LaCivita, center, who co-managed Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, responded hours later to my post
Perhaps Senator Susan Collins will prevail in Maine. Perhaps Republicans will retain their seats in Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio and even Texas.
It is also possible that Donald Trump will spend the final days of the campaign doing what he has done better than nearly anyone in modern politics: dominating the news, energizing his supporters and turning the election into a referendum on the Democratic Party’s unpopular ideas.
Republican advertising, opposition research and voter-turnout operations could also descend on Democratic candidates with overwhelming force.
Maybe.
I know serious Republicans who consider every one of those outcomes possible. I also write as someone who has argued for more than a decade that, after Bill Clinton, Trump is the most talented political athlete of the past 40 years. Anyone who underestimates his stamina, instincts or willingness to try virtually anything is taking a serious risk.
Still, after watching the past several news cycles unfold, I see another possibility emerging.
The wheels appear to be coming off a White House confronting the possibility of a Democratic wave election.
That is not because Democratic leaders have suddenly transformed into political masterminds. It is because unpopular wars and rising prices make for a particularly dangerous combination for the party in power during a midterm election.
Voters do not need a policy briefing to know that groceries, gasoline and electricity are too expensive. In most midterm elections, they hold the president and his party responsible.
Trump’s job-approval numbers are extremely weak, with particularly troubling losses among young men, women, Hispanics and independent voters. These are not marginal constituencies; many helped carry Trump to victory in 2024.
The electoral map presents another challenge. Republicans are not simply defending vulnerable seats in the usual battleground states. They are now being forced to worry about places where a Republican candidate should ordinarily be able to campaign with little concern, including Florida and Kansas.
Every dollar spent and presidential visit expended plugging a leak in a red state is a resource lost.
Trump’s job approval numbers are dreadful, with especially alarming erosion among young men, women, hispanics and independents
‘I have received 18 calls all saying the same thing,’ he wrote, ‘@MarkHalperin is full of sh*t,’ LaCivita wrote
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Trump is now even reportedly considering holding a rally in Alabama.
Alabama!
This is the political equivalent of sending Barack Obama to Vermont in the homestretch.
The White House’s recent attempt to ban CNN, Politico and MS NOW from its grounds was another spectacular own goal. A Trump-appointed judge ordered the administration to restore access, finding the ban likely unconstitutional. The episode accomplished nothing except generating days of negative coverage, uniting major news organizations (including Fox News) against the White House and making the president look distracted and vindictive.
Now, Republican candidates are beginning to distance themselves from Trump, which produces damaging headlines and raises the obvious question of whether the president will tolerate their disloyalty, even when it is necessary for the party’s survival.
On Saturday evening, we got our answer.
The President reposted more than a dozen Truth Social posts criticizing Florida Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban-American three-term incumbent, who finds herself in a tight race against her Democratic opponent in a district that Trump carried by 15 percentage points in 2024.
She dramatically broke with the administration last week, accusing the President’s deportation policy of ‘going too far’ and alienating hispanic voters.
No doubt, Salazar, a 20-year fixture in her South Florida community, identified immigration policy as a political vulnerability and moved to address it.
One of the messages amplified by Trump on Saturday read: ‘We need a NEW Republican to replace Salazar.’
The President’s behavior suggests that he’d rather hurt Salazar’s electoral chances and potentially sacrifice another Republican seat in Congress than accept her criticism.
It’s just another move from this White House that is maddening to the Republicans I speak to, including some from districts similar to Salazar’s, which, only weeks ago, were presumed to be safely in GOP hands.
Meanwhile, Republicans are grumbling that Trump’s political operation may be sitting on too much of its enormous cash reserves, instead of spending whatever it takes to save endangered candidates.
The President reposted more than a dozen Truth Social posts criticizing Florida Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban-American three-term incumbent
The party does have a substantial financial advantage and that could matter enormously. But money in a bank account does not persuade a single voter.
Abroad, the White House appears to be searching for the kind of breakthrough that could change the subject. Though, a last-minute agreement with Iran looks more like a mirage than a plan.
The Washington summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping may have produced grand ceremony, flattering photographs and sweeping presidential adjectives. But what is far less clear is how it lowers gas prices and makes voters feel better.
There are larger economic dangers as well. Interest rates, the bond market, the exploding debt and deficit and the vast sums of money pouring into artificial intelligence should worry anyone aware of how quickly economic confidence can vanish.
Trump’s full-speed embrace of AI and giant data centers may prove visionary. It may also become a symbol of an administration that is more interested in billionaires and machines than families staring at another ugly utility bill.
None of this means Republicans are doomed. Trump has escaped more tight situations than MacGruber. Democrats remain fully capable of overreaching, choking in debates and frightening away persuadable voters.
But the burden of proof has shifted. Republicans now need nearly everything to go right, while Democrats need economic conditions to stay the same or deteriorate.
At the moment, the prospects for improvement in the next few weeks are dim.
And the President, in the view of many of his long-time supporters in Republican politics, does not appear to be doing much of anything to help the cause.
