Election forecaster Nate Silver has significantly upgraded Democrats’ prospects of taking control of Congress. His latest model assigns the party a 94 percent chance of winning the House and a 75 percent chance of capturing the Senate.
The revised forecast, released Monday in Silver’s Silver Bulletin newsletter, arrived just over two weeks before Americans vote on November 3. Republicans are seeking to preserve their majorities in both chambers.
Democrats’ projected chances of winning the Senate have risen to 75 percent from 50 percent in early September. Their odds of taking the House have also increased, climbing from 81 percent to 94 percent.
Silver outlined the changing political landscape during an appearance on The Fifth Column podcast on Friday, October 16, shortly before issuing his updated forecast.
These numbers represent model-based probabilities rather than polling results, meaning they do not guarantee that Democrats will win either chamber.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating and ongoing economic concerns are among the key factors influencing the political environment ahead of the midterm elections.
Recent polling has provided additional signs that Republicans face a difficult path as voters prepare to cast their ballots.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted from October 9 to 13 showed Democrats holding an eight-point advantage over Republicans in the contest for House control.
Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 14 points—54 percent to 40 percent—in a SurveyUSA poll.
Texas Democrat James Talarico has a narrower lead over Republican Ken Paxton, 48 percent to 46 percent, according to a University of Houston poll released Monday.
A Quantus Insights survey conducted October 15–17 found Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff ahead of Republican challenger Mike Collins in Georgia by nearly seven points, 51.8 percent to 44.9 percent.
The same survey reported that Trump’s approval rating among American adults was 33 percent, while 66 percent disapproved of his performance.
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Other surveys showed a similar Democratic advantage. An NBC News/Decision Desk generic congressional ballot poll put Democrats ahead 55 percent to 45 percent, while an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey showed them leading 52 percent to 44 percent.
Democrats must gain four seats to take the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
Several closely fought Senate races are expected to determine the outcome, including contests in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska.
Two states once viewed as battlegrounds are now beginning to appear increasingly favorable to Democrats.
In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper holds a 14-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley, leading 54 percent to 40 percent in a SurveyUSA poll.
In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff leads Republican challenger Mike Collins by nearly seven points, 51.8 percent to 44.9 percent, in a Quantus Insights survey conducted October 15–17.
Texas Democrat James Talarico is ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent, in a University of Houston poll released Monday.
The fight for the House is also emerging across a range of closely contested congressional districts.
In Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, a Washington Post–Schar School poll put Democrat Shannon Taylor ahead of Republican Representative Rob Wittman by four points, 50 percent to 46 percent.
In Minnesota, Democrat Jake Johnson led Republican Representative Brad Finstad by two points, while in Virginia’s 2nd District, former Democratic Representative Elaine Luria was ahead of Republican Representative Jen Kiggans by three points.
However, Silver, who projected President Obama’s victory, has a forecast that comes with significant uncertainty.
Even a relatively small polling error could alter the picture in closely contested Senate races.
