California voters have identified their early favorites for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, and Gov. Gavin Newsom is not among the top two, according to a new California Post poll.
When asked whom they would support if the Democratic primary were held today, Golden State voters placed a Democrat from the East Coast at the top of the field.
Newsom, meanwhile, received only lukewarm marks for his performance as governor and finished third in the hypothetical primary matchup.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez led the survey with 18% support. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg followed closely at 17%.
Newsom drew 14% support. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly was backed by 10% of respondents, while former Vice President Kamala Harris — who previously represented California as a senator and served as the state’s attorney general — placed fifth with 7%.
McLaughlin & Associates conducted the statewide survey among 800 California voters from Oct. 17 through Oct. 20. The poll has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, and 419 respondents answered the Democratic primary question.
“Both Newsom and Harris have not locked up the — what would you call — the progressive or the very liberal vote,” McLaughlin said in an interview. “They’ve got stiff competition for it from AOC and from Buttigieg.”
He added that candidates also need to build a strong demographic coalition, noting that minority voters — including Hispanic, Black and Asian voters, as well as women — make up a significant share of the Democratic primary electorate.
Ocasio-Cortez was particularly dominant among self-identified liberal voters. She received support from 25% of those who described themselves as liberal and 41% of those who identified as very liberal.
California voters offered a mixed assessment of Newsom’s job performance: 47% approved, while 50% disapproved. That included 41% who expressed strong disapproval. Independent voters were especially critical, with 62% saying they disapproved of the governor’s performance.
Fifty-six percent of respondents said California was headed in the wrong direction. Economic concerns — including the cost of living, the state budget, taxes, housing and health care — were the dominant reasons for that pessimistic view.
The poll presented voters with a list of figures frequently mentioned as possible 2028 presidential contenders, including Ocasio-Cortez, Buttigieg, Newsom, Kelly and Harris.
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The list also included Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who each received 3%; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, at 2%; former Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, at 1%; and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, also at 1%. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis and commentator Stephen A. Smith were included as choices but received no support.
Another 23% of respondents remained undecided.
Jeff Jenkins, a provost professor of public policy, political science and law at the University of Southern California, cautioned that it is still extremely early to draw firm conclusions from 2028 presidential polling. With so much likely to change before the election, he said the surveys offer only limited insight at this stage.
“That said, I think it is interesting that Newsom in particular isn’t doing better — because if polls are tracking anything right now, it would be name recognition,” Jenkins said.
“That doesn’t bode well for him. By contrast, I think few see Harris as a serious candidate, so I’m not surprised by her tally,” he added.
The California Post findings are broadly consistent with other recent surveys showing that enthusiasm for potential presidential campaigns by Newsom and Harris may be fading in their home state.
A September survey from the UC Berkeley Citrin Center and POLITICO found that 37% of California Democrats were excited about a Newsom campaign, compared with 28% who said the same about Harris. Those figures marked a notable decline from March, when more than 40% of California voters expressed enthusiasm for each candidate to run.
National polling has produced a somewhat different picture. Three surveys conducted in October showed Harris leading the potential Democratic field with between 20% and 30% support. Newsom ranked second in each poll, attracting roughly 15%.
“They have national name ID, many of these other candidates don’t,” McLaughlin said.
Both California Democrats have been making the rounds in key primary states to not only campaign for Democrat politicians but also market themselves to a more national audience. Newsom and Harris have openly acknowledged they are considering White House runs.
Most recently, the governor was in New Hampshire, while Harris will reportedly be in Wisconsin and Georgia later this month.
The Post reached out to offices for both Newsom and Harris for comment.
