As Texas quarterback Arch Manning’s draft stock has slipped during an uneven 5-2 season, NFL scouts are increasingly looking toward Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker as the leading candidate to be the first quarterback selected in April’s draft.
Mestemaker transferred from North Texas and did not start a single high school game at quarterback. His Oklahoma State team also owns a 5-2 record, but the junior has been notably efficient. He has completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 2,326 yards and 20 touchdowns, while throwing just six interceptions and taking eight sacks.
Manning’s seven interceptions are hardly alarming, but he has been sacked 19 times this season and has passed for only 1,507 yards.
That leaves Peyton and Eli Manning’s nephew averaging 215 passing yards per game for a middling Texas offense, while Mestemaker is producing 332 passing yards per game for a unit ranked third nationally.
Several other highly regarded quarterbacks have also seen their stock dip, including South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and LSU’s Sam Leavitt. Consequently, 17 of 25 NFL scouts and executives surveyed by ESPN said they expect the 20-year-old Mestemaker to be the first quarterback taken in April’s NFL Draft.
‘Mestemaker seems like the only real choice at this point,’ one scout told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) celebrates a victory over Mississippi in Athens
Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) walks toward the stadium before a game
Mestemaker is averaging 332 passing yards per game for an offense ranked third nationally
‘The size, the body type and arm strength are the things that stood out to me right away,’ another scout said of the 6-foot-3 Austin native. ‘He’s got arm talent, power and accuracy.’
Thamel conducted the quarterback poll in both August and October, and the results changed dramatically between the two surveys.
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In August, 14 respondents predicted Oregon’s Dante Moore would be the first quarterback selected. Moore now appears likely to miss the rest of the season because of a concussion. Manning received seven votes, while Sellers earned two and Leavitt received one.
Mestemaker was not viewed as a serious draft candidate before the season, but the first two months have significantly altered that outlook. In Thamel’s latest poll, only Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, with four votes, Miami’s Darian Mensah, with three, and Moore, with one, joined Mestemaker in receiving consideration.
‘Before the season, this class was going to rival 1983,’ one scout told ESPN, referring to the five quarterbacks selected in the first round that year. ‘But there’s been a lot of moving parts and Arch has fallen. It’ll be interesting to see who resurfaces.’
Mestemaker is still relatively inexperienced, but he could have 27 career starts by the end of 2026 after taking over as North Texas’ starter during a productive 2025 season. He followed head coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Oklahoma State and has remained one of the country’s most productive quarterbacks despite facing a higher level of competition.
Mestemaker is still relatively inexperienced, but he could have 27 career starts by the end of 2026 after a successful 2025 season as North Texas’ starter
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Mestemaker struggled in the season-opening loss to Tulsa, but he outplayed Moore during Oklahoma State’s Week 2 upset of Oregon and may have delivered an even stronger performance in the October 17 loss to No. 20 Houston.
Unlike in 2025, when Mestemaker primarily operated from inside the pocket for the Mean Green, he has also become a more effective runner with the Cowboys. Against Oregon, he gained 109 yards and scored a touchdown on just six carries.
Manning, a redshirt junior, and Mestemaker could both return to college in 2027, which would make them the early favorites to be the first quarterbacks selected in 2028.
One scout identified Brendan Sorsby as a potential wildcard for 2027. The former University of Cincinnati quarterback attempted to transfer to Texas Tech after acknowledging that he had bet on college football, but the move fell through. His effort to enter the NFL’s supplemental draft was also blocked, although he has continued training and remains a possible first-round pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
‘People are almost forgetting about Sorsby,’ a veteran scout told ESPN. ‘There’s no question he can be a first-rounder. We’ll see how that all goes. He’s got to go to an all-star game and show the talent, excel during that week and answer all the questions. It’s all about how he handles it.’
